975
FXUS66 KSEW 212205
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
305 PM PDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
CALMER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND, WITH
AREA RIVERS CONTINUING TO RECEDE INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRUSH THE NORTH COAST LATER TODAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK FOR MORE RAIN, HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER WEATHER ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A DECAYING SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE NORTH
PACIFIC COAST TODAY, BUT THE BROADER REGION SHOULD STAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S THIS WEEKEND, WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S IN THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND MID 30S IN THE
LOWLANDS. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY, BUT
THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST CALM DAY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND BRING ABOUT ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN (ALTHOUGH LESS RAIN THAN THE SYSTEM FROM LAST
WEEK), HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW, AND MORE NOTABLY, THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. SOME OF THE
FORTHCOMING DETAIL ON THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. QPF FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING SEEMS TO BE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF AROUND A HALF
OF AN INCH FOR MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS, AND UPWARD OF AN INCH OR
TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
PICK UP ON TUESDAY MORNING, AND PEAK LATE THAT AFTERNOON. NBM
50TH PERCENTILE WINDS SHOW GUST POTENTIAL IN PUGET SOUND UP TO
35 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH ALONG THE COAST. THIS CAN AND
WILL CHANGE AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW EVOLVES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER ON ELEVATED WINDS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH RAIN SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS TAPER AND SCATTER BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE NE PACIFIC UNTIL HINTS OF RIDGING
EMERGE BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
21
AVIATION
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS HAVE REBOUNDED TO
VFR ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CLOUD COVER MOSTLY SCATTERING OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUND AND ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
REMAINING PERSISTENT IN THE VICINITY OF HOOD CANAL. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE MOST SPOTS
WILL REMAIN VFR, A FEW COULD SEE BRIEFLY SEE CIGS DIP DOWN TO
MVFR. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST AND
ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR (KHQM, KCLM, KBLI), BUT EXPECT MANY
SPOTS TO REMAIN DRY.
WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE PUGET SOUND
TERMINALS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUND ARE PERSISTING AT
GENERALLY 6 KT OR LESS. KCLM AND KHQM ARE THE EXCEPTIONS, WITH
WESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING AT 8-12 KTS. GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AT KCLM, BEFORE
WINDS EASE TO 6-8 KT.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR, WITH
SHOWERS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL
PERSIST OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 4-7 KTS.
14
MARINE
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, BUT DO
NOT EXPECT GUSTS TO BE WIDESPREAD OR FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ANY PRODUCT ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. SEAS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN
6-9 FT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY. A STRONGER, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC ON TUESDAY AND SWING A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, IT HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO THE WASHINGTON
WATERS. AT THIS TIME, THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION HAS WINDS
REACHING GALE-FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ON TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TOWARDS 17-20
FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH THE LATEST GEFS GUIDANCE
INDICATING ROUGHLY A 40-50% CHANCE OF SEAS BUILDING TO GREATER
THAN 20 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
14
HYDROLOGY
A NUMBER OF RIVERS ARE STILL IN VARYING DEGREES OF FLOOD STAGE
TODAY, BUT ALL ARE STILL RECEDING AND WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH ONLY
SMALL RISES EXPECTED OUT OF THE SYSTEM ARRIVING TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE LANDSLIDE SPS WAS CANCELLED, THOUGH
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SLIDES CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT
ONE TO TWO DAYS AS SOILS CONTINUE TO DRAIN.
21
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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