068
FXUS66 KSEW 220857
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
157 AM PDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN, HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS AND A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FORM
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW. DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE
IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH
THROUGH WESTERN WA THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DRIER CONDITIONS. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY FOR DRY
WEATHER. MORNING LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE
30S, AND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING AROUND THE SOUTH SOUND.
A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS TIED TO A DEEP LOW SPINNING
OFFSHORE THAT WILL SHIFT NORTH OF HAIDA GWAII. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS, PRIMARILY COAST AND NORTH PART, WHERE
PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE THE HIGHEST. UP IN
THE MOUNTAINS, SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWEST OVER THE NORTHERN
CASCADES WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE RISING OVER 5,000 FT IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES THUS MINIMIZING
IMPACTS TO I-90 AND US 2. RIVERS WILL SEE SMALL RISES BUT
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 33
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
WE REMAIN UNDER
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWER,
AROUND 2,500 FT, WITH SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND PASSES. SHOWERS
WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY ENHANCE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR STEVENS
PASS. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INLAND THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE BOARD. EXPECT WARNER HIGHS IN THE
INTERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWER 60S POSSIBLE. DRY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEPS LOWS COOL AND IN THE 30S. 33
AVIATION
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CEILINGS
THIS MORNING, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR.
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING REMAIN BELOW 15-25% ACROSS
THE AREA TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING, WITH HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATING THE SKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS THIS MORNING ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THROUGH REMAIN
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH PUGET SOUND AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH THE MORNING, SWITCHING TO LIGHT NORTHERLY
AT AROUND 19-20Z EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO AROUND 8 TO 12
KT BY 00Z MON AND REMAIN LIKE SO THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY REDEVELOP THIS MORNING AS A DRY FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
CLOUDS SCATTER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. S WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING, TURNING N BY 20Z, AND INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT AFTER 00Z
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
62
MARINE
A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS, AS WELL AS THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-23 KT, BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD EASE THROUGH
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8 FT
RANGE THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARDS
TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM, BUT STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE NBM INDICATES THAT AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE VERY LIKELY (>90%) ACROSS ALL THE
COASTAL AND INTERIOR WATERS, WITH 40- 60% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. GEFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A 50-70% CHANCE OF SEAS EXCEEDING 20
FT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
62
HYDROLOGY
RIVER CONTINUE TO RECEDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MOST
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL END TODAY. THE CEDAR RIVER AT RENTON WILL
REMAIN NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO DAM
RELEASES. NO OTHER RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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