972
FXUS66 KSEW 232159
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
259 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION TODAY. A SYSTEM ENTERING ON TUESDAY WILL BRING
LOWLAND RAIN, HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP HEADING INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON AHEAD OF A SYSTEM OFFSHORE. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM, WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S.
A MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING LOWLAND RAIN, HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND BREEZY
WINDS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
SLATED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AREAS THAT
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG
THE COAST, ALONG WITH LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH INTERIOR (WHIDBEY
ISLAND, SAN JUANS, WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY). PROBABILITIES OF
GUSTS OVER 45 MPH PER THE HREF. A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD BREEZY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE INTERIOR.
SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY AROUND 3000 FEET EARLY TUESDAY WILL RISE
UPWARDS TO 6000 FEET IN THE CASCADES, LIMITING SNOW TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
2500 FEET WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN THE PASSES. LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING
THAT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CASCADES,
ESPECIALLY AT STEVENS PASS. WITH THE AIR MASS BEING SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INLAND
STARTING ON FRIDAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO RANGE IN
THE UPPER 50S INTO LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. A TROUGH
WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
MAZURKIEWICZ
AVIATION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. HIGH CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING TO 4-
5 KT FT BY AROUND 13Z AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHT RAIN BY
MIDMORNING AND MIDDAY FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY MORNING - AND STRENGTHENING MID DAY BECOMING GUSTY WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z AND AN 80%
CHANCE BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING 6-8KT THEN 10-12KT GUST 25KT BY
MIDDAY.
MARINE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY, WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN POINT OF
VANCOUVER - FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS AREA WATERS TUESDAY MORNING, PEAKING FIRST ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
THEN SUBSEQUENTLY THROUGH THE INTERIOR WATERS LATER TUESDAY EVENING.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, AS WELL
AS THROUGH THE PUGET SOUND, ADMIRALTY INLET, EAST ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS. SEAS WILL
RISE ON TUESDAY, PEAKING AROUND 15-18 FT. SEAS UP TO AND EXCEEDING
20 FT REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BECOMING 6-8 FT THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
FLOWS ON THE CEDAR RIVER AT RENTON REMAIN HIGH,
JUST BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE DUE TO DAM OPERATIONS. SMALL RISES
ARE EXPECTED WITH TUESDAY'S WETTER SYSTEM HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. 33/MAZURKIEWICZ
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ISLAND COUNTY-
LOWLANDS OF WESTERN SKAGIT AND NORTHWESTERN SNOHOMISH
COUNTIES-LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-PORT TOWNSEND
AREA-SAN JUAN COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY COAST-NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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