854
FXUS66 KSEW 241648
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
948 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG STORM WILL BRING WIND, RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW TODAY. SHOWERS AND A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN INCREASES BY MONDAY WITH
A TROUGH.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PRECIPITATION MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING HAVING SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES EMBEDDED IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS. MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION BAND SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM MOVING IN IS A
LITTLE BIT QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTED.
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA. THIS SYSTEM IS
TIED TO A DEEP, 990 MB, LOW THAT WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN
VANCOUVER ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE PASSING OF THE
LOW, WE WILL SEE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER WESTERN WA WITH
A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH
INTERIOR WHERE GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH WILL OCCUR - A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT. EXPECT GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH ELSEWHERE WITH WINDS
EASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UP IN THE MOUNTAINS,
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE DAY BUT WE MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AT MOUNT BAKER AND THE NORTH CASCADES
THIS MORNING. RAINFALL/QPF IS NOT TOO HEAVY OTHERWISE. RIVERS
MAY SEE SMALL RISES BUT ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
WE REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE LOWER, AROUND 2500 FT, WITH SNOW IN THE CASCADES
AND PASSES. SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED WITH A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER SNOHOMISH COUNTY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INLAND ON THURSDAY FOR A TREND
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER. 33
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAYS MOVING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. A TROUGH
KICKS THE RIDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN WA. MONDAY IS WETTER (AND COOLER)
AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND OVER WA. 33
AVIATION
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE AREA TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS - CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES - WITH RAIN THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY IMPROVE AFTER 18Z WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING 3-3.5K FEET
BETWEEN 00-03Z THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
FRONT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS - WITH 2-3SM VISIBILITIES AND PERSISTENT RAIN
THIS MORNING. CEILINGS LOOK TO START TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, LIFTING TO LOW END VFR LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 01-
03Z. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, INCREASING TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS AND THEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL EASE LATE THIS EVENING, BUT
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH 08Z.
MARINE
A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. GALES ARE EXPECTED ALL WATERS
WITH COASTAL SEAS BUILDING WELL INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FEET THURSDAY AND 5-7 FEET TOWARD
THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
RIVER FLOODING IN NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ISLAND COUNTY-
LOWLANDS OF WESTERN SKAGIT AND NORTHWESTERN SNOHOMISH
COUNTIES-LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-PORT TOWNSEND
AREA-SAN JUAN COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY
COAST-NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR
BAR.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-PUGET SOUND AND
HOOD CANAL-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
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