335
FXUS66 KSEW 141736
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1036 AM PDT TUE APR 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOL, WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER
WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
WETTER WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RAIN CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY COAST, AS WELL AS THE ADMIRALTY INLET AND
EVERETT REGION. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 40 TO 45 MPH IN THESE
AREAS, WITH LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW:
WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON TAP TODAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH WESTERN WA. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, INCLUDING SNOW AT ALL CASCADE
PASSES - WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
HOVER AROUND 3500 FT TODAY BUT WILL DROP TO 1500-2000 TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT BUT
THERE WILL BE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEAN 48-HR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 10 TO 20" WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE VOLCANOES. HEAVY SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE
OLYMPICS AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT
(PRIMARILY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT). IN ADDITION, IT'LL BE WINDY
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH COMMON ACROSS MOST LOWLAND AREAS.
WINDS WILL PEAK THIS EVENING BUT STILL REMAIN IN 15-25 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT.
A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOL AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WE'LL STILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES WILL EASE. THE AIR
MASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW OPENS TO A TROUGH AND EXITS EAST. IT'S NOT AS
WINDY BUT WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.
WE'RE UNDER DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
FORMS OFFSHORE. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AND IN THE
30S WITH FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
SOUND. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND IN THE 50S WITH
SUNBREAKS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT INLAND ON FRIDAY FOR MORE DRY AND STABLE WEATHER. MORNING
LOWS WILL STILL TRACK ON THE COOL-SIDE WITH POSSIBLE FROST
AROUND THE SOUTH SOUND. THE RIDGE DEPARTS ON SATURDAY WITH A
RETURN OF MOIST SW FLOW. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE
LOW MAY CLIP THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER
EAST AND INLAND. BY MONDAY, THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH, OVER
CA/NV, WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN WA. 33
AVIATION
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
TODAY, PRODUCING A MIXED BAG OF GENERALLY MVFR TO LOCALIZED LIFR
CONDITIONS AS PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS SPREAD INLAND.
VISIBILITIES WILL DETERIORATE IN HEAVIER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. STRATIFORM RAIN WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE FAVORED TO DEVELOP AND SHOWERS STREAMING INLAND
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES, BECOMING
GENERALLY 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KT.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE (LOW 15% CHANCE) THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AND IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE, WITH INCREASING CHANCES (20%
CHANCE) ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
KSEA...MVFR THIS MORNING IN LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AS
RAIN SPREADS OVER THE TERMINAL. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE AT
THE TERMINAL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POST-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FAVORED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS WILL EASE AFTER 06Z WED BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL IF CONVERGENCE
ZONE ACTIVITY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD, BUT IS UNLIKELY. CHANCES FOR THUNDER
INCREASE INTO WED.
15
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY
RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNINGS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS, AS WELL AS PUGET SOUND AND
ADMIRALTY INLET, DUE TO THE PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 60 TO 90 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST NEAR EVERETT AND ADMIRALTY INLET FOR THE INNER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS
WELL. SOUTH WINDS WILL PEAK THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. SCA WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS INCREASE FROM 4-6 FT TO 9-12 FT TUESDAY, LINGERING AT 8-10 FT
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN DECREASING TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE BUILDING BACK TO 8-10 FT.
JD/HPR
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CASCADES OF
PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND
NORTHERN KING COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SOUTHERN KING COUNTY-
CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
OLYMPICS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PUGET
SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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