021
FXUS66 KSEW 142142
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
242 PM PDT TUE APR 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TODAY WITH LOWLAND RAIN, BREEZY
WINDS, AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY. DRIER, COOL WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE AREA OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON.
STEADY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF CONVERGENCE ZONE
PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL PUGET SOUND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY, PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY COAST, AS
WELL AS ADMIRALTY INLET AND EVERETT REGION, WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO
45 MPH IN THESE AREAS. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ELSEWHERE, WITH
GUSTS RANGING 25 TO 40 MPH. INCREASING FOLIAGE WILL MAKE TREES
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE, WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED POWER
OUTAGES.
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 1500
FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN SNOW FOR THE CASCADES
AND OLYMPICS, INCLUDING THE PASSES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES
FOR THE CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8
TO 14 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR SNOQUALMIE AND STEVENS PASSES,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 18" AROUND WHITE PASS AND MOUNT
BAKER. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. SNOW WILL
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT, AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS PEAK BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT,
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING, BREEZY WINDS, AS WELL
AS SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO CLEAR FOR SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FROST
CONCERNS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH SOUND. OTHERWISE, INCREASING SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BRINGS
DRIER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FROST
POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN, MAINLY FROM OLYMPIA SOUTHWARDS FRIDAY AM.
AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN ENSEMBLES IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LOW BY SUNDAY, WHICH IMPACTS THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IS ALONG THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTEND THROUGH PUGET SOUND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY THEN MOVES TOWARDS
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON. HOWEVER, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A WARMING
TREND EXISTS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID
60S. JD
AVIATION
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH 3-6 SM
VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
COAST AROUND 00Z WED, MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, AND A CONVERGENCE
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY START NORTH OF THE METRO THEN SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS,
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A BROKEN CLOUD DECK FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN THESE SHOWERS AND THE CONVERGENCE ZONE, THERE WILL BE A
15-25% CHANCE FOR SOME OF THESE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS (HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON), BUT CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THIS IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. KPAE MAY TEMPORARILY CHANGE TO N BETWEEN
AROUND 03-12Z TUE.
KSEA...MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LOW CEILINGS AND TEMPORARY
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. RAIN WILL CEASE
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT AROUND 03-05Z TUE. CLOUDS
SHOULD LIFT AND BREAK APART FOR LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FAVORED TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE-MORNING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. A POST-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL LIKELY STAY
NORTH OF THE TERMINAL UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. 15-25%
CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY, THROUGH CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
S WINDS 12-15 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 06Z
WED, AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL EASE AND BEGIN TO TURN MORE SE
OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AT 5-10 KT.
62
MARINE
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, AS WELL AS PUGET
SOUND AND ADMIRALTY INLET THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR OTHER WATERS INTO THE EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH A STRONG WESTERLY PUSH
THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH GALE FORCE WEST
WIND GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING TO 10 TO 13 FEET
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. JD
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CASCADES OF
PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND
NORTHERN KING COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SOUTHERN KING COUNTY-
CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN EVERETT
/ MARYSVILLE AREA-ISLAND COUNTY-LOWLANDS OF WESTERN
SKAGIT AND NORTHWESTERN SNOHOMISH COUNTIES-SHORELINE /
LYNNWOOD / SOUTH EVERETT AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
OLYMPICS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR GRAYS HARBOR
COUNTY COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR
BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING
THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PUGET
SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PUGET SOUND AND
HOOD CANAL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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