483
FXUS66 KSEW 060324
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
824 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
THURSDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BRINGING ROUNDS OF MORNING STRATUS
TO THE AREA. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, BUT LOOKS TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
PERSISTENT CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING SKIES A BIT CLOUDIER AND TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER. CLOUDS HAVE NOW SCATTERED THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS, GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE
COAST, WHERE CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH THURSDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BRINGING ROUNDS OF
MORNING STRATUS TO THE AREA. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, BUT LOOKS TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE PATTERN SHIFTS A LITTLE BIT LATE FRIDAY AS A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. WHILE THIS WILL BRING BACK
A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS THAT MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING LESS THAN A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH, THE MORE NOTABLE
IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WOULD BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY
REACH INTO THE 60S FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S FOR HIGHS BY SUNDAY. MINOR HEATRISK
WILL RETURN TO AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR, THOUGH THE COAST WILL
REMAIN COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. STRATUS IN THE INTERIOR RECEDED TO THE COAST
THIS EVENING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR AREAS NOT COVERED BY THE MARINE
LAYER. ANOTHER ONSHORE PUSH IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING, WITH
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FILL JUST WEST OF KOLM.
SIMILAR TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRATUS, WITH IT REACHING THE
SOUTH INTERIOR/STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AREAS BY AROUND 7-10Z, AND THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AT AROUND 8-11Z. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD IS MVFR, THOUGH
IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT TIMES. STRATUS CLEAR TIME IN THE INTERIOR
IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE SLOW SIDE (19-22Z). WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AROUND 4-8 KT, WITH HIGHER WINDS IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.
KSEA...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN STRATUS WITH MVFR LIKELY AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS FROM AS EARLY AS 08-11Z THROUGH 19-
22Z, THEN RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS SSW 4-8 KT.
21/HPR
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL
STRAIT AND NEAREST TO THE INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE GALE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW COULD BE ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE PASSING BY THE REGION TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER, LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS THAN
A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALES ACROSS THE U.S. PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT
WITH WINDS UP TO AROUND 30 KT. WILL AWAIT AN UPGRADE OF THIS
WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN THIS LOWER PROBABILITY. MEANWHILE, GUSTY
WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
THIS WEEK. INITIALLY BUILDING INTO THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE, THESE
WILL BE DRIVEN BY LOCAL WINDS AND MAY REACH STEEPNESS CRITERIA.
THEREAFTER, EXPECT SEAS TO PEAK OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THURSDAY AROUND 10 FT.
HYDROLOGY
THE DAILY HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION HAS ENDED UNTIL THE START OF THE NEXT
RAINY SEASON; IT WILL ONLY BE UPDATED DURING THIS TIME AS
NEEDED.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
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