017
FXUS66 KSEW 060924
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
224 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND
WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF MORNING MARINE STRATUS INTO THE
AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY TO THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
LOOKS TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN
SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STRATUS CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH LATEST SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOWING IT FILLING IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUND AS OF 08Z. EXPECT STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO EXPAND ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND FOR
IT TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BETWEEN 21-00Z. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY,
TEMPERATURES COULD END UP A BIT COOLER AS A RESULT OF THE
LINGERING STRATUS, SO EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. LATEST HREF PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS ABOUT A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS IN AND AROUND
THE SEATTLE METRO. THE COAST WILL STAY COOLER UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER AND LOOKS TO SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST.
A WEAK, DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES INLAND. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BACK A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL LOOKS TO
REMAIN LIGHT, WITH LATEST PROBABILITIES SUGGESTING LESS THAN A
15 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN
FALLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE MORE NOTABLE IMPACT
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH MOST SPOTS EXPECTED TO ONLY SEE HIGHS
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND
REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE,
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FAVORS A WEAKER RIDGE, AND BRINGS SOME
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON AS SYSTEMS PASS TO THE NORTH. OVERALL, EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK WILL RETURN, WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
AND MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
14
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING
WITH STRATUS STARTING TO FILTER IT'S WAY THROUGH THE INTERIOR.
COASTAL LOCATIONS ALREADY SEEING MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
STRATUS REACHING THE INTERIOR AROUND 10Z-12Z. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED, BUT IFR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT TIMES (30%). STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR OUT, GENERALLY AROUND 20-23Z WITH VFR CONTINUING FOR T
KSEA...VFR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH MVFR AROUND
09Z-12Z AND LASTING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING (20-30%)
WITH THE INCOMING STRATUS. STRATUS WILL START TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AROUND 21-23Z WITH THE RETURN TO VFR. S/SW WINDS 5 TO
10 KNOTS.
HE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. S/SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH KCLM SEEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS (GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE).
KSEA...VFR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH MVFR AROUND
09Z-12Z AND LASTING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING (20-30%)
WITH THE INCOMING STRATUS. STRATUS WILL START TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AROUND 21-23Z WITH THE RETURN TO VFR. S/SW WINDS 5 TO
10 KNOTS.
MAZURKIEWICZ
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN DECREASED PROBABILITIES OF GALE GUSTS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON'S PUSH DOWN THE STRAIT AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY.
HAVE REPLACED THE GALE WATCH WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH
MORE AGREEMENT THAT THE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE LESS THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. A GUST OR TWO UP TO GALE STRENGTH CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THOUGH. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATER ZONES AS SEAS START TO BUILD
TOWARDS 9 TO 11 FEET LATER THIS EVENING, LASTING INTO THURSDAY -
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
MAZURKIEWICZ
HYDROLOGY
THE DAILY HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION HAS ENDED UNTIL THE START OF THE NEXT
RAINY SEASON; IT WILL ONLY BE UPDATED DURING THIS TIME AS NEEDED.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
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