301
FXUS66 KSEW 061618
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
918 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND
WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF MORNING MARINE STRATUS INTO THE
AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY TO THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
LOOKS TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN
SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CLOUDY START WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THE STRATUS IN PLACE
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY,
TEMPERATURES COULD END UP A BIT COOLER AS A RESULT OF THE
LINGERING STRATUS, SO EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. LATEST HREF
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS ABOUT A 10-20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND THE SEATTLE METRO. THE COAST WILL STAY COOLER UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER AND LOOKS TO SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST.
A WEAK, DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES INLAND. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BACK A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL LOOKS TO
REMAIN LIGHT, WITH LATEST PROBABILITIES SUGGESTING LESS THAN A
15 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN
FALLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE MORE NOTABLE IMPACT
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH MOST SPOTS EXPECTED TO ONLY SEE HIGHS
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND
REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE,
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FAVORS A WEAKER RIDGE, AND BRINGS SOME
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON AS SYSTEMS PASS TO THE NORTH. OVERALL, EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK WILL RETURN, WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
AND MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
14
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW. WESTERN WA LOWLANDS REMAINED COVERED UNDER MARINE
CLOUDS THAT HAVE PUSHED INTO THE CASCADE VALLEYS. CEILINGS ARE
MAINLY IN IFR RANGE THIS MORNING. THE TREND IS FOR A GRADUAL
LIFT INTO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLE VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WILL WILL TOTALLY
BREAK OUT TODAY GIVEN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AGAIN OVERNIGHT FOR IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
KSEA...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A SLOW/GRADUAL
LIFT OF CEILINGS (BUT NOT COMPLETELY SCT OR CLEAR). LOW-END VFR
POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z. A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. S/SW WIND TO 10 KT. 33
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN DECREASED PROBABILITIES OF
GALE GUSTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S PUSH DOWN THE STRAIT AS A WEAK SYSTEM
PASSES BY. HAVE REPLACED THE GALE WATCH WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WITH MORE AGREEMENT THAT THE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE LESS
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. A GUST OR TWO UP TO GALE STRENGTH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THOUGH. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATER ZONES AS SEAS START TO
BUILD TOWARDS 9 TO 11 FEET LATER THIS EVENING, LASTING INTO
THURSDAY - WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
MAZURKIEWICZ
HYDROLOGY
THE DAILY HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION HAS ENDED UNTIL THE START OF THE NEXT
RAINY SEASON; IT WILL ONLY BE UPDATED DURING THIS TIME AS
NEEDED.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND
TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES
ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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