618
FXUS66 KSEW 062200
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF MORNING MARINE STRATUS OVER THE NEXT
DAYS. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
STUBBORN STRATUS CONTINUES OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM UP.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES AS OF 3:00 PM MID TO UPPER 50S. WITH
CLOUDS STRUGGLING TO SCATTER OUT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO ONLY PEAK IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 60S FOR THE
INTERIOR.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP STRATUS OVER THE REGION
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST AND MID TO
UPPER 60S IN THE INTERIOR. CLOUD COVER WILL BE REINTRODUCED THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM HEADS TOWARDS THE REGION.
ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY. THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS,
WITH CURRENT POPS AT 10% OR LESS. 29
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REBUILD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP STRENGTHENING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARM UP. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S ALONG
THE COAST AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL WARM UP TO THE MID 60S ALONG
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE INTERIOR WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, WITH 80S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. 29
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
NEAR THE SURFACE, LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRATUS
CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. MOST AREAS ARE WITHIN
MVFR RANGE. CLOUDS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF IFR
CONDITIONS. WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL HELP LOW
CLOUDS TO LIFT AND SCATTER IN THE INTERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
33
KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z. S/SW
WINDS TO 10 KT. 33
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND, RESULTING IN ONGOING ONSHORE FLOW
OVER WESTERN WA. SCA IN EFFECT FOR 10 FT SEAS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH WESTERLY WINDS 20-30 KT THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAKER ON THURSDAY. A WEAK
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY WITH A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSHES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 33
HYDROLOGY
THE DAILY HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION HAS ENDED UNTIL THE START OF THE NEXT
RAINY SEASON; IT WILL ONLY BE UPDATED DURING THIS TIME AS
NEEDED.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA.
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