581
FXUS66 KSEW 070510
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1010 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF MORNING MARINE STRATUS OVER THE NEXT
DAYS. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER, BUT GIVEN THE TREND
OF THE STRATUS STUCK IN PLACE, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM COMPARED TO FORECAST, IN THE LOW 50S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP STRATUS OVER THE REGION
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST AND MID TO
UPPER 60S IN THE INTERIOR. CLOUD COVER WILL BE REINTRODUCED THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM HEADS TOWARDS THE REGION.
ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT. NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS, WITH CURRENT POPS AT 10% OR
LESS.
29/62
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REBUILD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP STRENGTHENING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARM UP. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S ALONG
THE COAST AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL WARM UP TO THE MID 60S ALONG
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE INTERIOR WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, WITH 80S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. 29
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE LOWLAND. NEAR THE SURFACE, LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRATUS CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS. MOST AREAS ARE WITHIN MVFR RANGE. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
OVERNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS. WEAKER ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL HELP LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT AND SCATTER IN
THE INTERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z. S/SW
WINDS TO 10 KT.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH LOWER
PRESSURE INLAND, RESULTING IN ONGOING ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WA.
STEEP SEAS PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN-MOST COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS 8-
10 FT WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 8 TO 10 SECONDS, BUT SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO EASE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT HAVE
ALSO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, SO CONFINED THE
ADVISORY TO THE CENTRAL STRAIT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAKER ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS ON FRIDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
WITH A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
62
HYDROLOGY
THE DAILY HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION HAS ENDED UNTIL THE START OF THE NEXT
RAINY SEASON; IT WILL ONLY BE UPDATED DURING THIS TIME AS
NEEDED.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM.
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