846
FXUS66 KSEW 220955
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
255 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY, FLATTENING AND
BECOMING MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SYSTEM ARRIVING ON MEMORIAL DAY
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. THE REST OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY,
KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. WEAK RIDGING IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST, REMAINING GENERALLY CLEAR IN THROUGH PUGET SOUND.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL, ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING IN MORNING MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS THAT REACH THE
INTERIOR BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AFTERNOON SUN IS EXPECTED AS
THE STRATUS ERODES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA OVER THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS ONE WILL BRING ABOUT MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET MUCH WARMER THAN THE LOW 60S BY MONDAY. WHILE
NOT A FINAL FORECAST, INDICATIONS OF WHAT THE QPF COULD LOOK
LIKE AT THIS POINT SUGGEST AROUND A QUARTER TO THREE TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES
OF RAIN IN THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH,
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER A TROUGH OR
RIDGE REBUILDS. THE ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT WITH NO REAL CONSENSUS
AT THIS POINT AND LOOKS TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
21
AVIATION
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TODAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH LIFR/IFR ALONG
THE COAST. LIFR/IFR STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
THIS MORNING, AND EXPECTED TO MAINLY REMAIN FROM SHN WESTWARDS.
VSBYS MAY ALSO LOWER TOWARDS LESS THAN 1SM FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. STRATUS WILL THEN CLEAR LATE MORNING INTO
MIDDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE N/NW THIS AFTERNOON.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRATUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL SW OF THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING, WITH LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. MAINLY NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON RANGING 5 TO 10 KTS. JD
MARINE
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN SCA GUSTS TO
25 KTS INTO TONIGHT. A STRONGER WEST PUSH THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
GALES THROUGH THE STRAIT DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, THE
PROBABILITIES FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS PEAKS AROUND 75% FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT. WINDS WILL THEN EASE ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SCA WIND GUSTS TO MUCH OF THE AREA WATERS.
SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 5 TO 9 FEET THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE
LARGEST AND STEEPEST WAVES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. DOMINANT
PERIODS WILL BE AROUND 8 TO 9 SECONDS THROUGH SUNDAY. WAVES INCREASE
TO 10 TO 13 FEET MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. JD
HYDROLOGY
THE DAILY HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION HAS ENDED UNTIL THE START OF THE
NEXT RAINY SEASON; IT WILL ONLY BE UPDATED DURING THIS TIME AS
NEEDED.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
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