365
FXUS66 KSEW 231607
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
907 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER INTO SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND. A SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY, WITH DRIER
WEATHER POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
STRATUS CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON. CLOUD THICKNESS OF AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FT
INDICATE THAT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO CLEAR OUT
THESE CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70,
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WE CLEAR OUT TODAY. AREAS ON THE COAST
MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW. OF NOTE, WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WHICH MAY RESULT
IN WIND GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE STRAIT AND WHIDBEY ISLAND
REACHING 30 TO 35 MPH. OTHERWISE, HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL RANGE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
MONDAY WILL ALSO BE RATHER BREEZY, WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS. AT THIS TIME, WIND GUSTS LOOK TO RANGE 20 TO 35 MPH FOR
MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS
REACHING 40 MPH PEAK AROUND WHIDBEY ISLANDS (AND NORTHWARDS) AS
WELL AS ALONG THE NORTH COAST, WITH PROBABILITIES FROM NBM
RANGING 40 TO 60% ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD IMPACTS AREN'T
EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS, UNSECURED TENTS OR OUTDOOR EQUIPMENT
COULD BE IMPACTED. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 15%) OF
THUNDER ON MONDAY, MAINLY LATE MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
ONLY REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY, MAINLY FOCUSED FROM
SNOHOMISH COUNTY SOUTHWARDS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WITH IT LARGE WAVES. WAVES PEAK IN
HEIGHT EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN BECOME MORE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MIDWEEK, WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO BC AND THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRIER
CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ANOTHER TROUGH MAY BEGIN TO
APPROACH WESTERN WASHINGTON BY LATE NEXT WEEK. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S BY MIDWEEK.
JD/62
AVIATION
INCREASED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA HAS ALLOWED FOR STRATUS
TO FILL IN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
AS A RESULT HAVE LARGELY LOWERED TO LIFR AND IFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TERMINALS. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS STILL SHOW STRATUS FILLING IN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AROUND 16Z. GIVEN THESE RECENT
TRENDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN OVERHEAD,
EXPECT STRATUS TO LINGER ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, EXPECT
STRATUS NOT TO SCATTER UNTIL 20-21Z FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS. STRATUS
WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES FOR KBLI
AND KHQM BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KTS. A BRIEF SWITCH OF SURFACE WINDS
TO THE NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL PUGET SOUND TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT 6 KT OR LESS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
KSEA...IFR CIGS AT THE TERMINAL IN STRATUS THIS MORNING. CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WILL NOT
SCATTER UNTIL AROUND 20-21Z COINCIDING WITH IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 5-10 KT THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SWITCH TO THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN 01-04Z, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AT 6 KT OR LESS. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH BACK TO THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
14
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WEST PUSH THROUGH THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FOR THIS
REASON, THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THIS PERIOD. SCA WIND
GUSTS ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR ADMIRALTY INLET. GENERALLY LIGHTER
WINDS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY LEADING TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIDESPREAD SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MAJORITY OF WATERS. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES FOR EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA ON MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING THEN RETURNS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK.
SEAS WILL BE 7 TO 10 FEET TODAY WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 8 TO 9
SECONDS. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 7 FEET ON SUNDAY.
SEAS WILL THEN BUILD TO 12 TO 16 FEET LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM BEFORE SUBSIDING TO NEAR 10 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY. JD
HYDROLOGY
THE DAILY HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION HAS ENDED UNTIL THE
START OF THE NEXT RAINY SEASON; IT WILL ONLY BE UPDATED DURING
THIS TIME AS NEEDED.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM.
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