932
FXUS66 KSEW 071617
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
917 AM PDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
RAINFALL BEFORE A SERIES OF SYSTEMS RETURN COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A
PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD DRY AND CONSIDERABLY WARMER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE LAST VESTIGES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GONE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
JUST OFFSHORE WHICH WILL OFFSET OUR CHANCES OF SEEING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SUN WHEN THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE'S A NOTEWORTHY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TREND REGARDING THIS
NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER
NORTH WITH TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
ENDS UP BEING A DECENT STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT IN CONTRAST TO THE
CONVECTIVE STUFF WE SAW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PUT ANOTHER WAY, THE
SEATTLE AREA COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM...OR
ROUGHLY JUST OVER A THIRD OF WHAT WE NORMALLY GET IN THE WHOLE OF
THE MONTH OF THE JUNE. NOT BAD. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST HASN'T
CHANGED TERRIBLY MUCH WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND
LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WE'LL DIG INTO IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS WITH UPDATES TO THE AVIATION
PORTION.
27
SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF SHOWERS ON CURRENT RADAR, THE MOST NOTABLE
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SNOHOMISH AND SKAGIT COUNTIES AT THE TIME
OF THIS WRITING AND FIZZLING OUT AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD.
OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS PRESENT.
AS STATED IN THE SYNOPSIS, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY. NOT COMPLETELY DRY THOUGH AS
ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS WHERE FORCED LIFTING TRIGGERED BY TOPOGRAPHY
COULD GIVE RISE TO SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SUCH AS OVER THE
OLYMPICS AND CASCADES AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BENEFIT A LITTLE BIT FROM THIS UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE, BUMPING UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS MOST INTERIOR
LOWLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S.
THIS RIDGE MANAGES TO HOLD OFF THE NEXT INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM AT
LEAST INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT RAINS RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...MAYBE HOLDING OFF TIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA /WHATCOM COUNTY/. BETWEEN
THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT AND THE FOLLOW-UP PARENT
UPPER LOW, NO DISCERNIBLE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATEST NBM SUGGESTS THUNDER MAY BE A POSSIBILITY
TUESDAY AND SOME CAPE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE AVAILABLE, LIS STAY WELL
ON THE STABLE SIDE OF THINGS AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAR FROM
IMPRESSIVE WHEN CONSIDERING TRIGGERING CONVECTION. PROBTHUNDER
VALUES REMAIN BELOW 20 PCT AND WHILE IT MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE,
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT ALONE FOR NOW AND WILL RE-EVALUATE COME
FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY DON'T REALLY SEE TOO MUCH VARIATION
FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
THAT SAID, MONDAY DOES SHOW SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WHERE MID 60S COULD
EMERGE, WHEREAS TUESDAY HIGH TEMP SPREAD IS MORE UNIFORM.
18
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SEE POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BEFORE
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TAKE ROOT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTBOUND UPPER LOW LINGERS. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR AN INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TO BEGIN TO FLEX ITS MUSCLES INTO W WA STARTING ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DATA
REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WHEN IT COMES TO RAPID WARMING WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70, THEN JUMPING UP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MOST THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS...ALTHOUGH THE SW
INTERIOR WILL GET TO AROUND 80 AND SATURDAY POPS FURTHER UPWARD INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. TAKING A PEAK OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST WINDOW
INTO DAYS 8 TO 14, CHANCES OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WITH HINTS OF 90S POTENTIALLY STARTING
AS EARLY AS NEXT SUNDAY. ORDINARILY, IT WOULD BE ADVISED THAT AT
THIS FAR OUT, A GRAIN OF SALT OR OTHER PREFERRED TABLE SEASONING
WOULD BE RECOMMENDED. AS DATA REMAINS PERSISTENT, HOWEVER, PREPPING
IN ADVANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT HEAT AND HEAT RISK THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND MIGHT BE WARRANTED.
18
AVIATION
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BACK TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHES THE AREA. REMNANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING MVFR AND POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR IN INCREASING
RAIN ALONG THE COAST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH SAID CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY SPREADING TO MOST INTERIOR TERMINALS 21Z MONDAY ONWARD.
KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS S/SW 7 TO 10
KNOTS GRADUALLY EASE THIS AFTERNOON AND VEER LIGHT W/NW FOR A PERIOD
THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE SURFACE WIND FORECAST ON MONDAY IS
RELATIVELY LOW AND HIGH DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF AN AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. INITIAL EXPECTATIONS ARE A
LIGHT E/SE WIND EARLY MONDAY BACKING NORTHERLY 9 TO 14 KNOTS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
27
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY, BEFORE
ANOTHER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA
WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN SLOW
AND DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH SOUTHERLIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN STRAIT, ADMIRALTY INLET, AND THE
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND ON MONDAY, WITH
LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATING A 70-80% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 21 KT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN INCREASE IN THE SYSTEM'S WAKE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. TUESDAY'S PUSH OF
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE STRAIT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST OF
THE WEEK, WITH LATEST PROBABILITIES INDICATING A 50-60% CHANCE OF
GALES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL WEAKEN. A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST ON
THURSDAY AND LOOKS LIKELY TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE WASHINGTON
COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION TO OFFSHORE AS A
RESULT.
SEAS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 4-6 FT TODAY, BEFORE BUILDING BACK TO 6-8 FT
BY MONDAY AND PERSISTING BETWEEN THIS RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
AHEAD.
14
FIRE WEATHER
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
STARTING THURSDAY, CONDITIONS, INCLUDING FUELS, WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES ENTERING INTO THE WEEK 2 TIME PERIOD. GIVEN THE STEEP CLIMB
IN TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXTRA CAUTION
WOULD BE ADVISED IN ANY PLANNING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page