178
FXUS66 KSEW 090334
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
834 PM PDT MON JUN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY. A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD DRY
AND CONSIDERABLY WARMER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATE IN WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT.
STEADIER RAIN ALONG THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL BE A
BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR THE REGION, WITH QPF AMOUNTS RANGING 1 TO
2.5 INCHES FOR THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES, WITH 0.50 TO 1 INCH
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWLANDS. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY, WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF SNOHOMISH COUNTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RATHER MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CZ TUESDAY PM.
OTHERWISE, LINGERING SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TAPER OFF
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH - NOTABLY BREEZY FOR MID
JUNE. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALSO CAN'T BE RULED OUT, MAINLY
ALONG WHIDBEY ISLAND DUE TO WEST WINDS (REFS PROBABILITIES PEAK
AROUND 60-70%), AND ALSO IN SOUTH SOUND AROUND TACOMA. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS SLOWLY DRYING OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD MORNING CLOUDS CLEARING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NE PACIFIC THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REACH THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM THE WATER, WITH LOW 80S FOR SOUTH SOUND BY FRIDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK BY FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
FURTHER OVER THE NE PACIFIC SATURDAY, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THERMAL TROUGHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL ALLOW FOR OFFSHORE BY LATE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST THEY'VE BEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON.
HIGHS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 80S INTO THE MID
90S FOR SOME LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR HEATRISK
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL, PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM THE WATER. IT
WILL BE IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE AND PREPARE FOR HOTTER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. JD
AVIATION
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IT. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO THE
INTERIOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. WILL
ALSO SEE VSBY REDUCTIONS IN AREAS WITH HEAVIER STRATIFORM
RAIN, RANGING FROM 4-6 STATUE MILES AT TIMES. STRATIFORM RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, EVEN WITH MVFR CEILINGS BEING
THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION, IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT THE COAST
AND AREAS ALONG THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA, WITH A 15-25% CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE INTERIOR.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MAINLY UNDER 7 KTS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING WHILE INCREASING TO 14 TO 18
KTS SUSTAINED, WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS.
KSEA...MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS MOVED NEAR
THE TERMINAL. MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AM. CIGS MAY
FLUCTUATE TO IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 07-12Z
(20% CHANCE). WITHIN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS, COULD SEE VSBY
REDUCTIONS 4-6 STATUE MILES WITHIN HEAVIER RAIN AT THE TERMINAL
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY W/SW THIS AFTERNOON. W/SW
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT UP TO 14 TO 18 KTS SUSTAINED,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING EVEN FURTHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
JD/MAZURKIEWICZ
MARINE
A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND WEAKEN INTO TONIGHT. ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION MORE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN A POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW
REGIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO INCREASE FOR INTERIOR WATERS
TUESDAY MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS ON TUESDAY DUE
TO THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. FURTHERMORE, A STRONG WEST
PUSH THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT ON
TUESDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REASON. WINDS
SLOWLY EASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS BECOME LIGHTER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
INCREASE THURSDAY INTO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OFFSHORE. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO OFFSHORE AT TIMES OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS
NORTHWARDS ALONG THE COAST.
SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6 TO 9 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. BRIEF 10
FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OUTER
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL DURING THIS PERIOD. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4 TO
7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN THIS RANGE INTO LATE WEEK. JD
FIRE WEATHER
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA STARTING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN HOT,
DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT NBM MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE RUNNING IN
THE 20-35 PERCENT RANGE BY NEXT MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT LOWER VALUES ARE ENTIRELY WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. IF THE CROSS CASCADE GRADIENT GOES NEGATIVE BY
SUNDAY, RH VALUES MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS IN THE CASCADES
VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THIS PATTERN
RESULTS IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. JD
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR WEST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN
JUAN ISLANDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PUGET
SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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