982
FXUS66 KSEW 132131
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
231 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR, OLYMPICS AND CASCADES. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE PATTERN FLIPS TO
UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH IN B.C. TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH THIS TROUGH
IS LOCATED OVER GRAHAM ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COASTLINE.
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY INTACT FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COVERAGE AREA
(NORTH OLYMPICS/CASCADES, AND INTERIOR). RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT, AND ONLY THE NEAH BAY TO QUILLAYUTE AREAS WILL SEE ANY
BUMP IN WIND SPEEDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
MORE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN UNDER A RIDGE, BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BUILDING INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
GOING INTO THURSDAY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT (EXCEPT
FOR THE MORNING PERIOD WHERE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY FOG IN A FEW LOW-LYING AREAS SHOULD CLOUD COVERAGE CLEAR
OUT). BUT OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THE HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGE
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW, WITH
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY IN THE CASCADES THURSDAY MORNING UP TO 20
TO 30 MPH. WITH FUELS LARGELY RECOVERED FROM RECENT RAINS, FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN WITH THIS
PATTERN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE DRY PATTERN FROM THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, WITH
FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST/DRIEST DAY OF THE FORECAST. MORE AREAS
WILL ALSO SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S, AND A FEW CASCADE VALLEY
LOCATIONS MAY SEE AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF AN 80. ONCE AGAIN,
BREEZY EAST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE DEPARTS. A TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM ALASKA WITH
A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM SATURDAY WILL BE QUICK, WITH THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS OVER 8,000 FT. A FEW
NORTH CASCADE LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF OF RAIN (AS
WELL AS SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS). THE SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK (LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) WILL BE COOLER AND
WETTER OVERALL (BUT SPREAD OUT OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD COMPARED TO
THE SATURDAY SYSTEM). SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 5,000 FT WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY AT TIMES WITH BOTH SYSTEMS, BUT THE RISK FOR HAZARDOUS
WINDS AT ADVISORY LEVEL REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
HPR
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT POCKETS OF MVFR ARE
STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE, WITH SHOWERS CHANCES AND MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING FOR THESE AREAS. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA, INCLUDING THE SEATTLE AREA TERMINALS,
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTER 10Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT TOWARD 10
KT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
KSEA...VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON UNDER SOLID MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 7-9 KT THIS EVENING, EASING
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER GRAHAM ISLAND WILL MOVE
INLAND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.
WINDS MAY BECOME A TOUCH BREEZY IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
(PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COASTLINE), BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA (20 KT) AT THIS POINT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE COAST, WITH AN
OFFSHORE PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME ONSHORE LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH. WINDS OVER 20 KT APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA, AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND PUGET
SOUND, AND AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE INTERIOR AND COASTAL
WATERS.
SEAS WILL STICK TO AROUND 4 TO 7 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 14 FT WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK, PEAKING
MONDAY.
HPR
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page