512
FXUS66 KSEW 140920
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
220 AM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COAST, OLYMPICS AND CASCADES. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE PATTERN FLIPS TO UNSETTLED
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS PASS
THROUGH.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS E/SE INTO WESTERN WA TODAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH 60S NEAR THE WATER. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY EAST CASCADE GAP WINDS OF 20-30 MPH.
FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. 33
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER AS A COLD FRONT AND TRAILING
TROUGH PUSH INTO WESTERN WA. SHOWERS WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE KING/SNOHOMISH LINE.
HIGH WILL BE COOLER AND IN THE 50S AND 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT COOLER LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WITH 30S AROUND THE SOUTH
SOUND. THE SYSTEM SLATED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS NOW SHIFTING
SOUTH OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS, MISSING WA, WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING GUSTY WINDS. THE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE
COOL AND SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD, THOUGH. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS. 33
AVIATION
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO RAIN,
CEILINGS ARE A BIT OF A MIXED BAG RANGING FROM IFR TO VFR.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH MOSTLY CONTINUING MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
(BETWEEN 18-21Z) ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND MAY NOT FULLY SCATTER
ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AFTER 00-03Z THUR THIS EVENING. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT GOING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY 4-8 KT AND WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BEFORE SWITCHING TO NORTHERLY, 5 KT OR LESS, BY AROUND 00Z THUR.
KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A 10% CHANCE OF BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS LOOK TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING AND
SLOWLY SCATTER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP, WITH A 25-35%
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z THUR. SW WINDS 4-8 KT WILL
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO N/NE UP TO 5 KT AFTER 00Z THUR.
62
MARINE
A WEAK FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT, WITH THERMAL TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO TURN OFFSHORE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WHILE WINDS ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY
THRESHOLDS FOR HEADLINES, THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE
WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS, WITH A 20-40% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED
20 KT NEAR THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
AROUND GRAYS HARBOR. WINDS WILL EASE ON FRIDAY AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH GETS PUSHED INLAND BY AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY FOLLOW SUIT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXACT LOW TRACK.
SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 7 FT THROUGH FRIDAY, INCREASING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MOST LIKELY FORECAST IS AROUND 8 TO 10 FT, THOUGH SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 13-16 FT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AS THE MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. GEFS IS SHOWING 40-50% CHANCES OF SEEING GREATER THAN 12 FT
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
62
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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