114
FXUS66 KSEW 141506
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
806 AM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH A
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN
SHIFTS TO UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY MOVED OUT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING,
WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR UPDATES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED
AVIATION DISCUSSION.
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH 60S NEAR THE WATER. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY EAST CASCADE GAP WINDS OF 20-30 MPH.
FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. 33
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER AS A COLD
FRONT AND TRAILING TROUGH PUSH INTO WESTERN WA. SHOWERS WITH A
CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE
KING/SNOHOMISH LINE. HIGH WILL BE COOLER AND IN THE 50S AND 60S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT COOLER LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WITH 30S
AROUND THE SOUTH SOUND. THE SYSTEM SLATED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IS NOW SHIFTING SOUTH OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS, MISSING WA, WITH
LOWER PROBABILITIES OF SEEING GUSTY WINDS. THE AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE COOL AND SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD, THOUGH. EXPECT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH
EXITS. 33
AVIATION
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS ARE A BIT OF A MIXED BAG THIS MORNING, RANGING
MOSTLY FROM IFR TO MVFR. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON (BETWEEN 18-21Z) ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
AND MAY NOT FULLY SCATTER ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AFTER 00-03Z THIS
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT GOING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY 4-8 KT AND WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BEFORE SWITCHING TO NORTHERLY, 5 KT OR LESS, BY AROUND 00Z.
KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS LOOK TO LIFT TO VFR
AFTER AROUND 18Z AND WILL SLOWLY SCATTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A 25-35% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z THUR. SW WINDS 4-8 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT
BEFORE SWITCHING TO N/NE AROUND 00Z THUR.
62/14
MARINE
A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT, WITH THERMAL TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO TURN OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE
WINDS ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS FOR HEADLINES,
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS, WITH A
20-40% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 20 KT NEAR THE WEST ENTRANCE TO
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND AROUND GRAYS HARBOR. WINDS WILL EASE
ON FRIDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH GETS PUSHED INLAND BY AN INCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. ONSHORE FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
MAY FOLLOW SUIT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT LOW TRACK.
SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 7 FT THROUGH FRIDAY, INCREASING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MOST LIKELY FORECAST IS AROUND 8 TO 10 FT, THOUGH SEAS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 13-16 FT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. GEFS IS SHOWING 40-50% CHANCES OF SEEING GREATER THAN 12 FT
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
62
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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