424
FXUS66 KSEW 162150
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
250 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY UP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK FRONT MAY REACHING THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
PATCHY FOG HAS DISSIPATED EARLY THUS AFTERNOON LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. AREAS ALONG THE WATER WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
A RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ALLOWING A
TROUGH AND A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, WE'RE
CONTINUING TO SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND THE
MOUNTAINS. POST FRONT, WE'LL SEE A CONVERGENCE ZONE SET UP ALONG
THE SNOHOMISH/KING COUNTY LINE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL COOL TO TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S, TO LOWER 60S.
COOLER BUT DRY ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY, BARELY
CLIPPING OUR AREA, RESULTING IN MOSTLY A DRY DAY, WITH AREAS
ALONG THE COAST SEEING A SHOWER OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
INTO TUESDAY AS IT ROTATES AWAY FROM OUR AREA, LEAVING WESTERN
WA IN LIGHT AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH TEMPS STAY IN THE UPPER
50S, WITH A WEAK FRONT SLATED TO ENTER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAZURKIEWICZ
AVIATION
VFR CIGS AND VISBYS HAVE RETURNED TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 7 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GO DOWN TO MVFR BETWEEN 07-09Z FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KOLM WHERE IFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY. RAIN WILL
GENERALLY EASE AFTER 17Z WITH VFR CIGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
KSEA...VFR CIGS ARE TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ARRIVING
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE
DONE BY 17Z, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS
TOMORROW MORNING MAY BECOME MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME, BUT THE
PREVAILING CATEGORY WILL BE VFR.
21
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
BETWEEN 8-10 FEET TOMORROW, MORE SO IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY WEST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BACK DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA SATURDAY.
21
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
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