327
FXUS66 KSEW 170304
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
804 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2026
UPDATE
WARM CONDITIONS HAVE COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG
WITH IT. SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WILL RISE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION, RESULTING
IN THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WAVES 10 FEET OR
HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A RETURN TO MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
15
SYNOPSIS
WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
WILL REMAIN COOL WITH SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS LOOK
TO DRY UP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK FRONT
MAY REACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ALLOWING A
TROUGH AND A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, WE'RE
CONTINUING TO SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND THE
MOUNTAINS. POST FRONT, WE'LL SEE A CONVERGENCE ZONE SET UP ALONG
THE SNOHOMISH/KING COUNTY LINE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL COOL TO TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S, TO LOWER 60S.
COOLER BUT DRY ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY, BARELY CLIPPING OUR AREA, RESULTING IN MOSTLY A DRY
DAY, WITH AREAS ALONG THE COAST SEEING A SHOWER OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY AS IT ROTATES AWAY FROM OUR
AREA, LEAVING WESTERN WA IN LIGHT AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH
TEMPS STAY IN THE UPPER 50S, WITH A WEAK FRONT SLATED TO ENTER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAZURKIEWICZ
AVIATION
VFR CIGS AND VISBYS HAVE RETURNED TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 7 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GO DOWN TO MVFR BETWEEN 07-09Z FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KOLM WHERE IFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY. RAIN WILL
GENERALLY EASE AFTER 17Z WITH VFR CIGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
KSEA...VFR CIGS ARE TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ARRIVING
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE
DONE BY 17Z, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS
TOMORROW MORNING MAY BECOME MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME, BUT THE
PREVAILING CATEGORY WILL BE VFR.
21
MARINE
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 8-10 FEET TOMORROW, MORE SO IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY
WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BACK DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY
TUESDAY.
INHERITED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FOR SATURDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST FOR SEAS, WILL ALSO ADD
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS LOOK TO
BE STEADILY AROUND 10 FT FOR THAT ZONE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
21/18
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
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