584
FXUS63 KSGF 230122
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
722 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 10
AM SUNDAY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
MISSOURI. VISIBILITIES MAY BE AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF MILE AT TIMES.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (60-90%) RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE
DUE TO SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY MID
NEXT WEEK INTO THANKSGIVING, AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50, AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS SEEMED TO BE TRAPPED OVER THE OZARKS
REGION UNDER A LEANED OVER SURFACE RIDGE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL, LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES, LIMITED IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
THOUGH THE DAY. THIS FITS RATHER NICELY WITH ONE OF OUR LOCAL
RULES OF THUMB CONCERNING WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE PLATEAU UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN GENERAL, CLOUDS LINGER UNTIL THE 850MB
RIDGE SHIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. LOOKING AT SHORT TERM MODELS,
THE 850 RIDGE TAKES ITS TIME TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA FINALLY
MAKING IT INTO ARKANSAS BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT, LOWERED TODAYS POTENTIAL HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. IF CLOUDS DO
BREAK SOME, AREAS THAT SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON MAY
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 50S BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING.
WITH THE 850MB RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
LINGERING NEAR 100 PERCENT, A RENEWAL OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS TO WEATHER THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORM OF STRATUS OR BUILD DOWN TO THE
SURFACE IN THE FORM OF FOG (45-65% BASED ON CAMS) AS HAS
OCCURRED THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. FOR NOW, THINKING THERE WILL BE
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO CONSIDER AN
ADVISORY FOR NOW.
WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THOUGH AREAS IN VALLEYS
AND OTHER LOW AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR DOWN SLOPE DRAINAGE
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BRING WHAT MAY LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. EARLY MORNING CLOUD
COVER WILL SHIFT EAST ALONG WITH THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON SUN.
THE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED WITH A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL SWING
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN POTENTIAL TO THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE TRENDED DOWN A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL HAVING SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE OZARKS.
STILL THE OZARKS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH HE HIGHEST RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44.
THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY WILL ALSO
BRING A PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, ALLOWING OLD CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIRMASSES
TO MAKE THROUGH WAY SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD WILL BE IN
THE 40S, THOUGH SOME MODELS AND ENSAMBLES MEMBERS BRING
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE ARE. CURRENT BLENDS HOWEVER HAVE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A WARM UP ALONG WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WITH DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AND A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK,
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL SWING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT SATURDAY. RAIN MAY CONTINUE INTO NEXT SUNDAY AS WELL
AS ANOTHER POTENTIALLY DEEP TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OF THE WEST COAST.
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
LOW IFR (SOMETIMES LIFR) STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM HIGH
(40-60%) THAT THE STRATUS WILL BUILD DOWN AS FOG BETWEEN 07-17Z,
BECOMING DENSE BELOW HALF MILE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES BETWEEN
9-14Z. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR JLN AND SGF. AT BBG,
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER IN BUILD-DOWN TO FOG, POTENTIALLY
STAYING AS LOW STRATUS (HENCE THE TEMPO GROUP). EITHER WAY,
THIS WILL KEEP ALL STATIONS LOCKED AT LIFR TO IFR UNTIL AROUND
17Z ONCE THE STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
DURING THIS PERIOD, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY SHIFTING FROM
NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. AFTER 17Z, THESE WINDS WILL SETTLE TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY AT ABOUT 3-8 KTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR MOZ055-056-066>069-077>080-088-089.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...PRICE
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