038
FXUS63 KSGF 240826
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
226 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST
OF HIGHWAY 63. EXPECT PATCHES OF FLUCTUATING VISIBILITIES
BELOW A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOW 30S.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (60-70%) NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS OF 2 AM.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THE COMMA-HEAD FEATURE SURROUNDING
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OVER MUCH OF
MISSOURI.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING: OBSERVATIONS SHOWCASE A LARGE
PORTION OF NORTHERN, EASTERN, AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI EXPERIENCING
VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE, WITH MANY IN THE 0.25-0.50 MILE RANGE AS
A STRATUS DECK REMAINS OVER THE REGION IN PLACES THAT AREN'T YET
SEEING PRECIPITATION. THERE REMAINS A QUESTION OF HOW FAR WEST THIS
WILL EXTEND AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 63, REFS AND HREF CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
60+% PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 0.25 MILES, LEADING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE. ONCE YOU GET WEST OF HIGHWAY 63 TOWARDS
SPRINGFIELD, THOSE HIGHER PROBABILITIES START TO DROP OFF AND BECOME
MORE PATCHY. DECIDED TO TRIM THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES OUT OF THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY SINCE THEY SHOULD REMAIN MORE PATCHY IN NATURE
BEFORE RAIN SETTLES IN. COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF A HOWELL TO
MILLER LINE REMAIN IN THE ADVISORY UNTIL 9AM.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH TODAY: AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE OZARKS, A 30-35KT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPED OVER KANSAS, WITH PVA AND INCREASING MOISTURE (0.75-1.0
PWATS) BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT, LIGHT RAIN
BEGAN MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE "HEAVIEST" RAINFALL SHOWCASING AN HOURLY
RATE OF 0.15-0.20"/HR.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, CAMS SHOWCASE A WEAKENING TREND IN THE
COVERAGE, LEADING TO SOME BREAKS IN THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER, AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE EXITING THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. INSTABILITY TRENDS HAVE GONE DOWN WITH THE MORE CURRENT
GUIDANCE, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (20-30%). FORECAST RAIN TOTALS REMAIN ON TRACK
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.20 AND
0.50. HREF LPMM CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
AREAS REACHING 1.0-1.5 INCHES TOWARDS WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
TRAINING SHOWERS ARE MORE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS WON'T SEE
THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY: WITH THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION LIMITING WARMING POTENTIAL, DECIDED TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM THE DETERMINISTIC NBM,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS
BETWEEN 6-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S HIGHS (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF VICHY-ROLLA THAT STAYED IN THE UPPER 40S), AND IS MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY: CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
MIDWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN SLIM TO
NONE, SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS LOW - THEREFORE, KEPT POPS IN THE 10-20% RANGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
THE COLD FRONT THAT'S PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOW 30S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO HINT AT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS, LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE AREA. WITH THIS
BEING SO FAR OUT STILL, THERE'S A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES LEADING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, INTENSITY, AMOUNTS, AND LOCATIONS. NBM
TEMPERATURE INTERQUARTILE SPREAD CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ALMOST 20
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES (25TH: 37
DEGREES; 75TH: 56 DEGREES; NBM DETERMINISTIC: 51 DEGREES), FURTHER
SHOWCASING THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM. WE'LL NEED TO
CONTINUE ASSESSING MODEL TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME
TO REALLY NARROW DOWN POTENTIAL SCENARIOS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS THE TAF
PERIOD CONTINUES. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATUS
DECK AND PRECIPITATION MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS KJLN, WHICH SHOULD
ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER THE PERIOD BEGINS, MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME PERIODIC BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 13Z-18Z, WITH
SOME CHANCES (<30%) OF THUNDER AT KBBG BETWEEN 18Z-00Z, SO
CONTINUED THE PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD,
ALL TAF SITES HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CEILINGS.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO
8-12 KTS GENERALLY AFTER 12Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ057-058-
070-071-082-083-097-098-106.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...MELTO
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