114
FXUS63 KSGF 242340
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, AND LOWS
IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (50% TO 80%) ARRIVE LATE
FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL RAIN IS FAVORED
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, BUT WET SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST MON NOV
24 2025
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINNING THROUGH
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ON RADAR, TWO AREAS OF
RETURNS ARE NOTED: THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHT'S/THIS
MORNING'S SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
ARKANSAS, AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THE LATTER ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW APPROACHES SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET PROVIDES LIFT. MODEL QPF HAS TRENDED UPWARD
EVER SO SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES. INDEED, RAP
OUTPUT DEPICTS AROUND 300-500 J/KG OF MUCAPE SNEAKING INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY AID IN BRIEF,
LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. FURTHERMORE, WHILE MOST ACTIVITY
WILL NOT PRODUCE LIGHTNING, THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
HANDFUL OF FLASHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
FLASHES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED. POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST BORDERLINE WARM/COLD CLOUD TOPS
WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MORE LIMITED; THEREFORE, PATCHY
DRIZZLE COULD BE MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS.
ADDITIONAL FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM 0.20 TO 0.75
INCHES, WITH HREF AND REFS LPMM SUGGESTING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
NEAR AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT:
A FOG SIGNAL IS APPARENT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT EXIT TO
THE EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION
AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. FURTHERMORE, NORTHWEST UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY AID IN DRIZZLE FORMATION ATOP THE OZARK PLATEAU.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST MON
NOV 24 2025
COOL AND MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY:
MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE MARKED BY COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW MODELS STILL INSIST ON PRODUCING QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS
IT PASSES THROUGH MISSOURI, THOUGH WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND THE
BETTER FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH, NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW
50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND:
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OPENING UP THE GULF FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS SETUP WILL OPEN THE
DOOR TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INDEED, NBM PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
(50-80%) THIS FAR OUT, PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. FROM A BIG-
PICTURE PERSPECTIVE, THE COLDEST FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN OUR
AREA ARE IN THE EASTERN OZARKS, WHERE CURRENT NBM TEMPERATURES
HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE LOCATIONS ARE WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND A
WET SNOW ARE FAVORED. TO THE NORTHEAST, SNOW WILL BE FAVORED,
WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST (MOST OF OUR AREA), RAIN WILL BE FAVORED.
CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 1
INCH THROUGH SATURDAY ARE IN THE 10% TO 20% RANGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE LIMITED TO FAR
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. LIKEWISE, THE PROBABILISTIC
WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX DEPICTS 10% TO 20% CHANCES OF MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS.
INSPECTION OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS REVEALS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSIST
AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER.
NAMELY, ECMWF MEMBERS TEND TO DIG A MORE DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHICH WOULD
PUSH THE COLDER AIR FARTHER SOUTH AND PERHAPS INCREASE OUR SNOW
PROBABILITIES. ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM, GEFS MEMBERS
TEND TO DEPICT A FLATTER OR MORE ZONAL HEIGHT PATTERN, WHICH
WOULD DECREASE OUR SNOW PROBABILITIES.
ALL OF THIS TO SAY THAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND DETAILS
REMAIN SPARSE. BUT, WE WANT TO RAISE AWARENESS OF POTENTIAL
TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION AT LARGE DUE TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION GIVEN IT'S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND. KEEP UP WITH THE
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS FORECAST DETAILS WILL CHANGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
QUICKLY MOVING IN AND OUT OF ALL TAF SITES. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS GENERALLY LEAVING THE
AREA BY 04Z, THOUGH INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z. AS THE TAF PERIOD GOES
ON, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO IFR TO LIFR TERRITORY AGAIN
(GREATEST CONFIDENCE BETWEEN 09-16Z). CLOUDS SHOULD THEN BEGIN
CLEARING AFTER 16Z, THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG THE
CLOUDS HOLD ON, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD, BECOMING MORE STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES AFTER 16Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...PRICE
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