873
FXUS63 KSGF 261956
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
156 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOW 30S.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (70% TO 90%) ARRIVE LATE
FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS EVENING WILL BE
MOSTLY RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THE EAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN TO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
DECEMBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS WEST OF THE LOW. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND WAS STREAMING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE, SOME GUSTY
WINDS WERE STILL OCCURRING BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
TONIGHT-THURSDAY: THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA AND WILL DIMINISH THE WIND TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD
EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR TONIGHT...INTO THE MID 20S IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS TO
ROUND FREEZING ELSEWHERE. WE SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER
MID MORNING THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
THURSDAY NIGHT, WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN INTO THE
LOW 20S IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE CWA. ON FRIDAY WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF
A WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE
OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND WILL START TO SEE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE END OF FRIDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD WARM
BACK INTO THE LOW 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 50S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
STORM SYSTEM #1: BY FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH 40-50KTS AT 850MB. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED THE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD START OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARMER SECTOR WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX OR A TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SNOW IN OUR EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ENOUGH AGAIN FOR ALL RAIN.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE ALL DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. A TRANSITION TO OR MIX
WITH SNOW MAY OCCUR ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION AS
WELL. SNOW PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE MAINLY CONFINED
TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 63 AND EVEN THAT IS AROUND 40-50%.
A COLDER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FIRST UPPER
WAVE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
STORM SYSTEM #2: STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND
MOISTURE WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIR
MASS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS CONTINUING. WE ARE
EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND
14Z ON THURSDAY WITH A CLEAR SKY THEREAFTER. SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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