077
FXUS63 KSGF 280540
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1140 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (80% TO 95%) FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN AS RAIN WITH AREAS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 SEEING SOME BRIEF SNOW OR RAIN-SNOW MIX
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS
SHIFTED INTO WESTERN QUEBEC WITH A LARGE AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WEST OF THE LOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE OH/TN
VALLEY INCLUDING OUR FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS
JUST NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OF WA/OR AND WILL
PROVIDE SOME OF THE LIFT FOR OUR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED WELL
INTO THE GULF WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 10KFT, BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT MIDDAY.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN TO MORE WESTERLY WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES. A CLEAR SKY WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE RIDGE TONIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. WE WILL SEE LOWS DIP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE EAST AND MID 20S TO AROUND 30 IN
THE WEST. AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO SET UP LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY IN OUR WESTERN CWA WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S THERE, WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE EAST. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
STORM SYSTEM #1: THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET TRANSITIONING FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY(40-50KT). MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY EXPAND OVER THE AREA. AS THE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, THE
LEADING EDGE MAY HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS,
GENERALLY EAST OF THE U.S. 63 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, THE STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
ALL RAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE AS RAIN THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. WHILE THE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE UPWARDS TO JUST
UNDER AN INCH IN SMALL POCKETS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS, THE WARMER
GROUND TEMPERATURES AND TRANSITION OVER TO RAINFALL WILL KEEP
THE AREA FROM ANY WINTERY IMPACTS. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH CURRENT TRENDS
SHOWING BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL NOT SWEEP THROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT, SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST UNTIL THEN. COLDER AIR ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AND
UPPER WAVE AND WE MAY SEE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IF THE COLDER AIR CAN ARRIVE
PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION ENDING. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
BUT A MINOR ACCUMULATION(<1") WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT EXPECTED.
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM #2: MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF VARIANCE WITH THE SECOND TROUGH POSITIONING AND TIMING
BRINGING THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE COMING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER ALOFT WHICH
WOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT SNOW IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW WITH
THIS SECOND SYSTEM AT THIS TIME(20-30% CHANCES).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THESE
WILL SETTLE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER 14Z AT 5-10 KTS,
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS AFTER 00Z.
SOME LLWS MAY BECOME APPARENT AFTER 00Z AT JLN, HOWEVER, WITH
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN AFTER 02Z (30-50% CHANCE), HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN MIXDOWN EFFECTS.
ALSO TO NOTE, WHILE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN 02-06Z IS ONLY
30-50% CHANCE AT THIS TIME, THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD MOVING IN
BETWEEN THAT TIMEFRAME, SO HAVE USED A PREVAILING GROUP INSTEAD
OF TEMPO/PROB30 AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...PRICE
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