654
FXUS63 KSGF 280900
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (85-100%) TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN AS RAIN WITH AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 63 SEEING SOME BRIEF SNOW OR RAIN-SNOW MIX
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NO WINTRY IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH. A FEW STRAY GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE (30-50% CHANCE). THIS WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT
WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A 30-50% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
MONDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY BE SNOW
(80-90% CHANCE). ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN IN PLACE CONSISTS OF A DEEP,
ENERGETIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, CENTERED JUST NORTH
EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, THE GENERAL
FLOW IS MORE ZONAL, BUT RAP ANALYSIS PAIRED WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND
A MORE COMPACT AND ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER-
MAKER THIS WEEKEND. BUT FIRST, THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
FORCING A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER OUR AREA.
THIS IS RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL SLOWLY CHANGE AS THE PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION, KICKSTARTING STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND
ASSOCIATED WIND SPEEDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
INCREASING SYNOPTIC ASCENT FROM POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE, AND STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL FORCE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA (85-100% CHANCE),
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL MOVE IN
FROM WEST TO EAST, BEGINNING AT THE I-49 AREA AROUND 8-9 PM, THE
HIGHWAY 65 AREA AROUND 10-11 PM, AND THE HIGHWAY 63 AREA AROUND
1-2 AM.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS
RAIN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA AS THE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S, AND
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 40S. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON MOST AREAS SEEING BETWEEN 0.25-0.75", WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS FOCUSED EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. SOME AREAS MAY SEE A
BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS IF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.
HREF MEAN SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MEAGER MUCAPE OF AROUND 100 J/KG.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE NAMNEST SHOWING 250-500 J/KG WHILE
MOST OTHER MODELS SIT NEAR 0. THAT SAID, THIS INTRODUCES A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SOME MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN EAST OF HWY 63:
WHILE ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR AREA,
SOME SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN (OR BE DOMINANT) ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 63 WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXISTS. WE SAY "BEST CHANCE", BECAUSE IT'S STILL NOT VERY HIGH
WITH THE HREF SHOWING A 10-15% CHANCE OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 32 F. ANY SNOW THAT MIXES IN WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 1 AND 8 AM
SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR AND ALL RAIN ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD.
WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIKELY JUST ABOVE 32 F, RAIN
POTENTIALLY MIXING IN, STRONG NEAR SURFACE WINDS, AND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES NEAR 0 F, ANY SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY MELT UPON IMPACT
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE ONLY WINTRY IMPACT
THAT MAY OCCUR IS A PERIOD OF SLUSHY ROADS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT EVEN THAT IS A STRETCH WITH >32 F NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SATURDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. DURING THIS PERIOD, SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH MOST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE FROM CAMS AND THE RAP SHOW SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
STAYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHILE PRECIPITATION STAYS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, POINTING TO MAINLY RAIN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS.
BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY:
WHILE THE RAIN IS ONGOING, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A ROARING 50-60 KT LOW-
LEVEL JET TRANSLATES OVERHEAD (THIS IS GREATER THAN THE 99.5TH
PERCENTILE LLJ FOR LATE NOVEMBER/EARLY DECEMBER). BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFERS ALONG WITH PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. NBM QMD GUIDANCE DOES
GIVE A 30-50% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A FEW 40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS
SPRINKLED IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OZARK
PLATEAU. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE EFI BECOMING >0.7 ALONG THE
PLATEAU WITH ONE SHIFT OF THE TAIL SUGGESTING SOME MEMBERS ALONG
THE HIGHER END OF THE GUST SPECTRUM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING WITH A COLDER AIR MASS:
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ADVECTING IN A COLDER AIR MASS WILL BRING
LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 32 F SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, SO MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP! LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
30-50% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT:
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIVELY TILTED
WHICH WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN THAT WILL BE LOCKED NEAR THE
GULF FROM THIS WEEKEND'S COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSLATE THROUGH THE REGION. AS A
RESULT, ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT. GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN, SOME MEMBERS KEEP OUR AREA MOSTLY DRY, LEADING
TO A 30-50% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR, THOUGH, WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW
AS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 29 AND 32 F ACROSS THE
REGION. IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR, NBM AND LREF GUIDANCE
GIVE AN 80-90% CHANCE FOR IT TO FALL AS SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS,
THOUGH, WOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND
QUICK-MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY, THE NBM HAS A
70-90% CHANCE OF LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK:
FOLLOWING MONDAY'S SYSTEM, MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO INCREASE, BUT
THE GENERAL PATTERN HAS MODESTLY INCREASING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAK WARM-UP WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID-30S TO THE MID-40S, AND LOWS IN THE 20S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO SHOW SOME SIGNALS FOR A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEK THAT MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, BUT MODEL SPREAD IS TOO HIGH TO MENTION ANYTHING
APPRECIABLE. NBM CHANCES THEREFORE REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15%.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THESE
WILL SETTLE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER 14Z AT 5-10 KTS,
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS AFTER 00Z.
SOME LLWS MAY BECOME APPARENT AFTER 00Z AT JLN, HOWEVER, WITH
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN AFTER 02Z (30-50% CHANCE), HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN MIXDOWN EFFECTS.
ALSO TO NOTE, WHILE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN 02-06Z IS ONLY
30-50% CHANCE AT THIS TIME, THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD MOVING IN
BETWEEN THAT TIMEFRAME, SO HAVE USED A PREVAILING GROUP INSTEAD
OF TEMPO/PROB30 AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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