161
FXUS63 KSGF 290900
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AS RAIN WITH PORTIONS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 63
SEEING SOME BRIEF SNOW OR RAIN-SNOW MIX BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM
THIS MORNING. NO WINTRY IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE OZARK PLATEAU/I-44 CORRIDOR
UNTIL 3 PM. 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WITH A 40-70% CHANCE
FOR FEW STRAY GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS
SUNDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE OZARKS.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A 35-60% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
MONDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY BE
FROZEN (80-90% CHANCE). 50-80% CHANCE OF LESS THAN 1 INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BLANKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA AS BROAD AND STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT
OVERSPREADS THE REGION DUE TO POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND STRONG AND WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
QUICKLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THE
QUICKLY DEVELOPING LOW IS RESULTING IN A STRONG MASS RESPONSE
AND TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, INCREASING WINDS TO 10-20
MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH. THIS IS AIDED BY A ROARING
50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SW MO.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON:
AS THE LOW TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NE KS AND NW MO,
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD. FOR THE MOST PART,
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES HOVE IN THE 40S, THOUGH SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE
RAIN AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE AS HREF MEAN
BRINGS IN 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE TO SOUTHERN MO. THE PAST FEW
NBM/HREF/REFS ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN 0.25-0.75
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 1-1.25
INCHES IF THE POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 1 AND 8 PM (I.E., ENDING BY 1-3 PM ALONG
I-49 CORRIDOR, AND ENDING AROUND 6-8 PM ALONG HWY 63 CORRIDOR).
CLOUD ICE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL LIFT AND SATURATION STAYS STRONG.
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW EAST OF HWY 63 BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM:
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS THAT THE NBM/HREF/REFS
ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN MUCH BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW TO MIX
IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SHANNON, DENT, PHELPS, AND MARIES
COUNTIES BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM THIS MORNING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BREACH <32 F IN THIS AREA
BEFORE THE LOW ADVECTS IN WARMER AIR TODAY. DURING THIS BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW, LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 32 F, SO THE GROUND SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH TO MELT ANY SNOW (AND THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE
RAINING BEFORE, POTENTIALLY DURING, THEN AFTER THE 4-8 AM SNOW
TIMEFRAME). THE MAIN LOW-POTENTIAL IMPACT WOULD BE SOME SLUSHY
ROADS EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COUNTIES.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON:
IN ADDITION TO THE COLD AND WET CONDITIONS, IT WILL ALSO BE
QUITE WINDY. THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING OVERHEAD IS EXPECTED TO
REACH 60-70 KTS IN STRENGTH, WHICH IS >99.5TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN OTHER WORDS, IT'S A CLIMATOLOGICAL
ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL JET. DURING THE MORNING HOURS, SOME OF THE
JET ENERGY MAY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH (NBM GIVES A 40-70%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE 45 MPH GUST TODAY. CAMS ARE A BIT MORE
BULLISH WITH >70% PROBS BETWEEN SPRINGFIELD AND ROLLA). THIS IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE OZARK PLATEAU/I-44 CORRIDOR
WHERE TERRAIN IS CLOSER TO THE LOW- LEVEL JET, MAKING IT EASIER
FOR ENERGY TO MIXDOWN. THEREFORE, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
UNTIL 3 PM FOR THE OZARK PLATEAU AREA. WHILE IN EFFECT UNTIL 3
PM, THE BEST CHANCE FOR >45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AM
AND 1 PM AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
NEAR SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING:
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER 20S. ALONG WITH 10-15 MPH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS, WIND CHILLS MAY DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER CAVEAT TO TODAY'S FORECAST IS FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
MIDDLE 20S IN 4-6 HOURS. IF THERE IS ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADS, THIS MAY RESULT IN A FLASH FREEZE. HOWEVER, STRONG WINDS
ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY LIMIT THIS THREAT. IT IS
MERELY BEING MENTIONED FOR SITUATIONAL AWARENESS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BRISK WIND CHILLS SUNDAY/MONDAY:
COLD AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH, BUT THIS WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING
WIND CHILLS DOWN TO THE NEAR SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNING.
35-60% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT:
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. CLUSTERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THAT
SAID, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL MEDIUM TO MEDIUM LOW AT
35-60%. THIS IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF 1) SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
AMONG MODELS; 2) LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AS THIS WEEKENDS COLD
FRONT LOCKS MOISTURE AWAY IN THE GULF AND THE POSITIVELY-TILTED
NATURE OF THE TROUGH WILL NOT RESULT IN STRONG MASS RESPONSE;
AND 3) LOOKING AT DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS, THE OZARKS LOOK
TO BE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE OF TWO PHASING SYSTEMS. WHAT'S
MEANT BY THAT IS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
DROP DOWN FROM THE NW CONUS, WHICH WILL FORCE SNOW ACROSS KS/NE
AND NORTH MO. AT THE SAME TIME, THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL FORCE RAIN
ACROSS THE TEXARKANA REGION. THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY ARE
PROGGED TO PHASE TOGETHER JUST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
OZARKS, PUTTING US RIGHT IN THE TRANSITION ZONE WHERE THERE
COULD BE LITTLE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THAT BEING SAID, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY
BE SNOW (80-90% CHANCE) AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 32 F
MONDAY. DUE TO THE CONSTRAINTS MENTIONED ABOVE, SNOWFALL LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT, WITH NBM GIVING A 50-80% CHANCE FOR LESS
THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
MENTIONABLE CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MO:
WITH THE OZARKS BEING SOMEWHERE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
THE PHASING SYSTEMS, ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND THE 32 F MARK, THERE IS A SIGNAL PRESENTING ITSELF FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET IN AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MO. AT THE
MOMENT, CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW, THOUGH SREF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A 50-70% CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN,
ALONG WITH NBM PROBS INCREASING, THE SCENARIO HAD ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO KEEP IN OUR FORECAST GRIDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS, THOUGH A DIVE INTO THE 00Z LREF SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THIS IS CURRENTLY A LOW-END CHANCE SCENARIO WITH
MOST MEMBERS SHOWING A DEEP ENOUGH COLD LAYER FOR MAINLY
SNOW/SLEET RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WIND CHILLS TO PREVAIL:
AFTER MONDAY'S SYSTEM, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE 30S AND 40S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY INCREASING FROM THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TO THE LOWER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT. THE OSCILLATION
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS A RESULT FOR CONTINUED ENSEMBLE SIGNALS
FOR SOME SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH COULD ALSO
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, MODEL SPREADS INCREASE DRASTICALLY AFTER TUESDAY,
LEAVING LITTLE TO NOTHING MEANINGFUL TO MENTION FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ALL
TAF SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT 19-22Z AT THE LATEST.
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS, VISIBILITIES FROM THE RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR EXCEPT FOR IF ANY PATCHES OF MODERATE
RAIN MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A VERY LOW-END CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 07-17Z (<30% CHANCE).
CIGS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DROP AS THE TAF PERIOD GOES ON. PRETTY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS, WITH A 70-85% CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 18-22Z AS A FROPA OCCURS. AFTER THE
FROPA, RAIN AND LOWERED CIGS SHOULD CEASE.
ANOTHER AVIATION CONCERN IS WINDS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
15-20 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KTS, POTENTIALLY REACHING
40-45 KTS BETWEEN 12-18Z. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER THE FROPA BETWEEN 19-22Z. AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
TRANSLATES OVERHEAD 12-18Z, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ097-101.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ058-070-071-
077-079>083-088>095-101>103.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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