419
FXUS66 KSGX 151119
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
319 AM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH PERIODS OF
WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND SANTA
ANA WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAKER WINDS WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS OF 3 AM. AREAS OF HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION HAS NOT BEEN
REPORTED OR OBSERVED. PEAK WEST WIND GUSTS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE BEEN
35 TO 47 MPH. THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE OCCURRED
THROUGH THE SAN GORGONIO PASS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TURN OFFSHORE AND NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. PEAK GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 30
TO 40 MPH, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BELOW THE CAJON PASS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE FROM THE COAST TO THE
DESERTS.
ANOTHER INCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
STATE WITH CONTINUED WEAK RIDGING OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING 3
TO 7 DEGREES OF WARMING FROM THE COAST TO THE DESERTS MONDAY.
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MOST GLOBAL MEAN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
KEEP SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING OVER THE US WEST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM
THE BEACHES TO THE DESERTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SANTA ANA WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY, PEAK IN STRENGTH
WEDNESDAY AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WIND STRENGTH
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT (WINDS AT BOTH 700 AND 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS OR LESS).
MODERATE STRENGTH WINDS LOOK LIKELY FOR PLACES PRONE TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (LIKE BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS), WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. CURRENT FORECAST
IS INDICATING PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY, MEAN GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ALL OF THE MEAN GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LOW AWAY FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH SOME
DEGREE OF RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
151030Z....COASTS/VALLEYS/COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ALONG MOST OF THE COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING,
EXTENDING INTO INLAND VALLEYS IN AREAS. VARYING BASES ARE PRESENT
WITH A FEW CLOUD LAYERS, BUT BASES GENERALLY ARE AT 2000-3000 FT
MSL. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP IN MOST AREAS 13-16Z THIS MORNING,
WITH FULL CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS BY 18Z.
OTHERWISE, SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 20,000 FT MSL TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 20,000 FT MSL
WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHES
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES OF 6 TO 7 FEET MAY RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW AT SUSCEPTIBLE LOW LYING BEACH PARKING LOTS AND BOARDWALKS
THIS MORNING. SURF COULD BE LOCALLY ELEVATED DUE TO LONGER-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELLS THROUGH MONDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR
MORE INFORMATION. TIDES BEGIN TO LOWER AFTER TODAY, FALLING BELOW 6
FEET BY MIDWEEK.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP
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