541
FXUS66 KSGX 151756
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF
WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR MONDAY.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA
ANA WINDS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LIGHTER WINDS
AND A GRADUALLY COOLING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER PARTS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
LOCALLY OVER ORANGE COUNTY, WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. LOCAL
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WERE OCCURRING BELOW CAJON PASS.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER
DESERTS AND SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS.
WEAK RIDGING WILL SPREAD FROM THE EAST PACIFIC EAST TO CALIFORNIA
LATER TODAY AND SHIFT EAST TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THAT LOW WILL SHIFT EAST VERSUS SOUTH THORUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE FORMS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A 15-20 MB MSLP GRADIENT, ALBEIT OVER A BROAD
AREA INSTEAD OF CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOCAL MOUNTAINS. SAME THING
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS FROM
CENTRAL NV THROUGH SOCAL, BUT NOTHING EXTREME. THUS, WE SHOULD HAVE
WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS TUE-THU, STRONGEST TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH IN
WINDIEST LOCATIONS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS, BELOW
CAJON PASS AND THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH COMPARED TO NORMAL, WITH SOME
LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, BOTH IN THE LOWER DESERTS AND
VALLEYS.
LATE IN THE WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES
AND/OR PLAINS, THOUGH MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE A LOT OF VARIATION IN
THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT. MOST LIKELY, THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION WITH THE TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT, THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF THE STORM TRACK HAS PRECIPITATION EVERY FEW DAYS OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE (BUT NOT ZERO)
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE WEEK OF XMAS.
AVIATION
151700Z....AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS (BASED AROUND 1500-2000FT MSL) ARE
LINGERING IN PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH FULL CLEARING BY 18-19Z. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHES
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES OF 6 TO 7 FEET CRESTED THIS MORNING AND WILL
GRADUALLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MUNYAN
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