382
FXUS66 KSGX 162150
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
150 PM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TODAY. A BRIEF COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT, AS WELL
AS DRIZZLE BEING POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE
INLAND VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE A MINOR WARMING AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK,
AND THEN FURTHER WARMING UP BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...
CURRENTLY, LOWER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE OUTER WATERS. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER BY
LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE
FLOW . THERE WILL ALSO BE THE FORMATION OF A WEAK COASTAL EDDY GOING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW JUST NORTH OF CATALINA ISLAND,
AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. DUE TO THIS, THE MARINE LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL IN AND THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING ALONG SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS AS BASES WILL BE
GENERALLY AROUND 700 TO 1500 FEET MSL.
THERE WILL BE A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION FROM TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY RESULT IN A
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE MID PART OF THE WORK WEEK (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE DESERTS), BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME THICKENING OF THE
MARINE LAYER WITH DRIZZLE BEING POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FORMATION OF
ANOTHER MORE WELL-PRONOUNCED COASTAL EDDY. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL
BE INCREASING WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BY LATER IN THE
EVENING ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50
MPH BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN GOING INTO THE EARLY HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
EVENTUALLY BECOME WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A RIDGE REMAINING IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH FURTHER DRYING BY LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK AND ONWARDS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE ALSO REMAINED
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS
IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING OF THE
RIDGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY THEN AND WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
162100Z...COAST...HIGH CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 20,000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM OVERHEAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER
LOOKS TO SLOWLY REBUILD BEGINNING TONIGHT, ALBEIT CLOUDS SHOULD BE
QUITE PATCHY AND ANY IMPACTS INTERMITTENT. THERE IS ABOUT A 20-40%
CHANCE OF SEEING CIGS FROM THESE CLOUDS AT COASTAL SITES BETWEEN 09-
16Z MONDAY MORNING, EXCEPT FOR A 50-60% CHANCE VCNTY KSAN 13-16Z. IF
CIGS DO OCCUR, BASES WILL BE QUITE LOW, AROUND 500-1000 FT MSL, AND
WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY REDUCE VIS TO 2-4 SM
ALONG THE COASTS. ANY CLOUDS/FOG THAT DO MOVE INLAND WILL CLEAR BY
16-17Z MONDAY.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
SURFACE GUSTS 20-40 KTS, STRONGEST OVER THE RIDGES AND IN THE HIGH
DESERT, LEADING TO POSSIBLE MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...STEWEY
AVIATION/MARINE...CSP
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