773
FXUS66 KSGX 170505
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
905 PM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNING. SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW
NIGHT IN SOME AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE MARINE LAYER ALSO
RETURNS. THERE WILL BE A MINOR WARMING AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED
BY EVEN FURTHER WARMING NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THIS EVENING...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER THE REGION. SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING ONSHORE AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING
THE RETURN OF AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS IS LIKELY INHIBITING
THE FORMATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS BUT HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A COASTAL EDDY WHICH COULD ALSO PLAY A
ROLE.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH TOMORROW
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DESERTS).
IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME THICKENING OF THE MARINE LAYER, WITH
DRIZZLE BEING POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER MORE WELL-
PRONOUNCED COASTAL EDDY. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BY LATER IN THE EVENING ON MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH BEING POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
GOING INTO THE EARLY HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME
WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS.
THE MODEL CONENSUS SOLUTION IS TRENDING TOWARDS A RIDGE REMAINING
IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES, WITH FURTHER DRYING BY LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK AND ONWARDS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE ALSO
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING
TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK
OFFSHORE WINDS IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THEN AND WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
AVIATION
170400Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...HIGH CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 20,000FT MSL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO SLOWLY REBUILD
TONIGHT, BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE QUITE PATCHY AND ANY IMPACTS
INTERMITTENT. THERE IS ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE OF SEEING CIGS FROM
THESE CLOUDS AT COASTAL SITES BETWEEN 09-16Z MONDAY MORNING, EXCEPT
FOR A 40-60% CHANCE VCNTY KSAN 13-16Z. IF CIGS DO OCCUR, BASES WILL
BE QUITE LOW, AROUND 500-1000FT MSL, AND WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
PATCHY FG WHICH MAY REDUCE VIS TO 2-4SM ALONG THE COASTS. ANY
CLOUDS/FG THAT DO MOVE INLAND WILL CLEAR BY 16-17Z MONDAY. A FULLER
MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH IMPACTS TO COASTAL SITES AS
EARLY AS 00Z. BASES LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER, BETWEEN 1000-1500FT MSL,
WITH INLAND SPREAD THROUGH 06Z INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND VALLEYS.
VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
TERRAIN AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT MOUNTAINS.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...HIGH CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 20,000FT MSL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. WEST WINDS PICK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE
GUSTS 25-45KTS, STRONGEST OVER THE RIDGES, THE HIGH DESERT, AND
MOUNTAIN PASSES. MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF BLDU
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET,
CONTINUING TO LESSEN THROUGH 12Z.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...ZUBER
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