475
FXUS66 KSGX 191644
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
844 AM PST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER TODAY FOR MOST PLACES. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS, WITH A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BELOW THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS 35 MPH TO 45 MPH, LOCALLY UP TO 50 MPH. PATCHY
LOW CLOUD AND FOG COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS NEAR
THE COAST. WIDESPREAD ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AT 8:30 AM WAS SHOWING PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST OFF
THE COAST OF ORANGE AND NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTIES. FOG WITH
VISIBILITY OF 1/2 MILE IS BEING REPORTED AT LOS ALAMITOS. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL CLEAR FROM COASTAL AREAS BY MID-MORNING. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND LOCALIZED FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW CLOUDS BECOME LESS LIKELY FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG AND BELOW THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THE CAJON PASS TO 40 TO 50 MPH. THE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING, SPREADING SOUTHWARD IN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH.
THERE WILL BE WARMING FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS FOR TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATER WARMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NBM
GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY HAS AS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE LOW DESERTS
EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES, A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE VALLEYS
EXCEEDING 85 DEGREES, A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF COASTAL AREAS EXCEEDING
75 DEGREES, AND A 40 TO 60 PERCENT FOR MOUNTAINS BELOW 5000 FEET
EXCEEDING 75 DEGREES. BY TUESDAY, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES 12 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
NBM GUIDANCE INDICATES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES
WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
191600Z...COAST/VALLEYS...VERY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 200-
300FT MSL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY COASTAL
SITES, BUT MAY LINGER OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FG DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND
AROUND 5 MILES OVERNIGHT, WITH BASES 200-800FT MSL. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CLOUDS, WITH A 40% CHANCE FOR CIGS AT
COASTAL SITES BY 04-06Z INCREASING TO 60% BY 09-10Z. VIS REDUCTIONS
POSSIBLE, DOWN TO 2-6SM FOR COASTAL SITES AND 1-3SM, LOCALLY LOWER,
FOR COASTAL TERRAIN AND VALLEYS DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. LOW
CLOUDS/FG RETREAT TO THE BEACHES BY 17-18Z WHERE THEY MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 25,000 FT MSL AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.
BEACHES
LONG-PERIOD WEST SWELL EASES THROUGH TONIGHT, LEADING TO DIMINISHING
SURF HEIGHTS. SETS TO 6 FEET CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR WEST-FACING
BEACHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, LEADING TO ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AND SOME DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...ZUBER
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