101
FXUS66 KSGX 192126
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
126 PM PST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS, WITH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND BELOW THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS
35 MPH TO 45 MPH, LOCALLY UP TO 50 MPH. PATCHY LOW CLOUD AND FOG
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS NEAR THE COAST.
WIDESPREAD ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AT 1 PM A PATCH OF FOG WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE COAST INTO
NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WHERE THE FOG BANK IS, VISIBILITY WILL
TEMPORARILY REDUCED. VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
FURTHER INLAND THAN THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCALIZED FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. COVERAGE WILL BE PATCHY, SO IMPACTS TO
VISIBILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS BECOME LESS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG AND BELOW THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THE CAJON PASS TO 40 TO 50 MPH. THE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING, SPREADING SOUTHWARD IN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH.
THERE WILL BE WARMING FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE GREATER WARMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NBM GUIDANCE FOR
TUESDAY HAS AS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE LOW DESERTS EXCEEDING 90
DEGREES, A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE VALLEYS EXCEEDING 85
DEGREES, A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF COASTAL AREAS EXCEEDING 75 DEGREES,
AND A 40 TO 60 PERCENT FOR MOUNTAINS BELOW 5000 FEET EXCEEDING 75
DEGREES. NBM GUIDANCE INDICATES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST
KEEPS HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AWAY FROM THE
COAST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
192100Z...COAST/VALLEYS...VERY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 200-
300FT MSL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE BEACHES, NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT ANY TAF SITES. MORE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FG DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND AROUND 5 MILES OVERNIGHT, WITH
BASES 200-800FT MSL. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CLOUDS,
WITH A 40% CHANCE FOR CIGS AT COASTAL SITES BY 04-06Z INCREASING TO
60% BY 09-10Z. VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE, DOWN TO 2-6SM FOR COASTAL
SITES AND 1-3SM, LOCALLY LOWER, FOR COASTAL TERRAIN AND VALLEYS
DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. LOW CLOUDS/FG RETREAT TO THE BEACHES BY
17-18Z WHERE THEY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 25,000 FT MSL AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.
BEACHES
LONG-PERIOD WEST SWELL EASES THROUGH TONIGHT, LEADING TO DIMINISHING
SURF HEIGHTS. SETS TO 6 FEET CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR WEST-FACING
BEACHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, LEADING TO ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AND SOME DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...ZUBER
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