895
FXUS66 KSGX 202146
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
146 PM PST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SANTA ANA
WINDS MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS LEADING TO
A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING INTO FRIDAY, WHERE PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BECOMES STRONGER BY THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO FORM, ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COAST AS THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHIFT IN THE
WIND TO BECOME MOSTLY OFFSHORE FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS BY LATER THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS COULD CREEP INTO PORTIONS OF THE
INLAND VALLEYS (MAINLY WITHIN THE MISSION VALLEY AREA). THERE COULD
ALSO BE POCKETS OF VERY LOCALIZED FOG IN THE VICINITY OF POINT LOMA.
MOST OF THIS WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
OFFSHORE WINDS BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT. WEAK SANTA ANA N-NE'LY WINDS
WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE GUSTY AND PERSISTENT GOING INTO THE LATER
HOURS OF THE DAY TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR THERE TO BE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS IN CONTROL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY. AS THE STRONG RIDGE REMAINS
PERSISTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY VERY WARM,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS, WITH VALUES GETTING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY (WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR NEXT
WEEK).
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH LOOKS TO
POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
202100Z...COAST...SATELLITE SHOWS POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
WATER, NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY COASTAL SITES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH THE OCCASIONAL FEW HIGH CLOUDS BASED ABOVE 20,000FT MSL THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP AFTER 05-08Z FRI, BUT WILL BE
EVEN MORE ISOLATED, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTS BEING IN
SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY 08-14Z FRI, CLEARING BY 15Z. AROUND A 30-
50% CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT KSNA, 50-60% CHANCE AT KSAN, AND
AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE AT KCRQ OVERNIGHT. BASES AND VIS WOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, AROUND 200-400FT MSL AND VIS TO 1/2-2SM FOR
THE LIMITED AREAS THAT DO SEE FG/LOW CLOUDS. FG/CLOUDS RETREAT TO
THE BEACHES/OFFSHORE BY 16-19Z.
VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 25,000 FT MSL
AND VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTH-NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
WINDS OVER MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS/DESERTS AND PARTS OF THE INLAND
EMPIRE (GENERALLY AREAS BELOW/SOUTH OF THE CAJON PASS), REMAINING
INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS TO 25-40 KTS AND MOD
UP/DOWNDRAFTS NEAR AND OVER MOUNTAINS. WINDS WEAKEN A BIT LATE
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...STEWEY
AVIATION/MARINE...ZUBER
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