372
FXUS66 KSGX 210531
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
931 PM PST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER DAYS WILL CONTINUE, WITH WEAK SANTA ANA WINDS CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER, WHERE PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BECOMES STRONGER BY THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THIS EVENING, SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH -6.6
MB SAN-TPH. THESE GRADIENTS ARE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SANTA ANA WINDS
CURRENTLY GUSTING 25-35 MPH IN WIND-PRONE AREAS INLAND. AT THE
COAST, A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST BUT IT'S
UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK N-NE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AND
PERSISTENT GOING INTO THE LATER HOURS OF THE DAY TOMORROW,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LOCALIZES IN THE FAVORED AREAS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND, REACHING THE THE LOW
80S IN SEVERAL AREAS WEST OF THE MTNS. THIS IS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND, WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY. AS THE STRONG RIDGE REMAINS PERSISTENT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY VERY WARM, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS, WITH VALUES GETTING INTO THE MID 80S BY
WEDNESDAY (WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR NEXT WEEK).
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
210400Z...COAST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS STARTING
TO DEVELOP, INCLUDING VCNTY KSAN. CLOUDS/FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND UP
TO ABOUT 5 MILES INLAND, BUT WILL REMAIN PATCHY, WITH AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 50-60% CHANCE FOR IMPACTS AT KCRQ BY 08Z AND 50-
70% CHANCE AT KSNA BY 11Z TONIGHT. CIGS ARE BASED AT 500-1000 FT MSL
THIS EVENING BUT ARE LIKELY TO FALL OVERNIGHT TO 300-600 FT MSL,
ALONG WITH REDUCTIONS IN VIS TO 1-4SM. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR
VIS TO FALL TO 1/2-2SM AT COASTAL SITES, HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY
07-13Z TONIGHT (OR 12-16Z FOR ORANGE COUNTY). LOW CLOUDS RETREATING
OFFSHORE 14-17Z. VERY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REDEVELOP ALONG
PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER 06Z SAT.
VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 25,000 FT MSL AND
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS
OVER MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS/DESERTS AND PARTS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE
(GENERALLY AREAS BELOW/SOUTH OF THE CAJON PASS), REMAINING
INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS TO 20-35 KTS AND MOD
UP/DOWNDRAFTS NEAR AND OVER MOUNTAINS. WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
BUT REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...CSP
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