245
FXUS66 KSGX 221717
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
917 AM PST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OFF THE COAST OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY, BUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER FOR PARTS OF ORANGE
COUNTY, CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND SETS IN FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WHEN ELEVATED SANTA ANA WINDS RETURN. A
PATTERN SHIFT LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGS A RETURN OF COOLER WEATHER
AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
UPDATE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS THIS WEEK
STILL GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, HOTTEST
WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. LATEST MODEL
RUNS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKER SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION IN A LOW LATE WEEK, BUT THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER
WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED WETTER IN
THE PAST 48 HOURS WITH A SECONDARY LOW TO FOLLOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED LATE WEEK SYSTEM, WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR ACCUMULATING RAIN. WHILE THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM LOOKS
BETTER, MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN BRINGING IT THROUGH SLOWER,
THUS SHUNTING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TO LATER IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS REMAINS THE MOST IMPACTFUL EVENT
ON THE HORIZON, WITH TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GET CLOSER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 344 AM FEBRUARY 22.
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS PRESENT THIS MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR
10-25 MPH ACROSS MOUNTAIN PASSES AND CANYONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS OFFSHORE WIND PATTERN
IS KEEPING CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING,
WITH SOME SPOTS REPORTING DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 1/4
MILE). FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY LATER THIS MORNING, BUT SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE MAY LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR YOUR WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL
IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S AT THE
BEACHES AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONGER OFFSHORE DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR FOR MANY
AREAS WITH LOCALES WARMING UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
CONTINUED TO USE HIGHER MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AS ANOMALOUS
STRONG RIDGE ANCHORS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH SOME SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. PLACES
THAT WILL REACH THIS MARK WITH GREATEST CERTAINTY WILL BE ACROSS
THE COACHELLA VALLEY. THOUGH WE ARE STILL IN WINTER, TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO BEAT THE HEAT BY LIMITING TIME OUTDOORS AND TAKING
WATER BREAKS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY, SO
SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS PASSES INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS WILL BECOME
ELEVATED. MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND PUSHING OFF
TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME,
THOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST INTO OUR REGION BY
LATER NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER. ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME PINNING DOWN EXACTLY WHEN THIS
WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST OF SOCAL OR MEXICO, MOST LIKELY FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. GEFS/EPS MODELS BEGIN TO INDICATE A PATTERN OF WETTER
MEMBERS BY THIS TIME AS WELL. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH SMALL, AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
221600Z... COAST...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH CIGS ARE GENERALLY <200-500FT
MSL AND ASSOCIATED VIS OF 0-2 SM IN FG/BR ALONG THE EXTREME COASTAL
AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY 17-18Z
THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY SOME LOCALIZED BKN CIGS OR REDUCED VIS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP AND PUSH BACK ASHORE AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH VERY SIMILAR COVERAGE, CIGS, AND VIS AS THIS MORNING.
INLAND...SOME OF THESE LOW CIGS/FG/BR COULD EXTENDED INTO PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND AREAS AGAIN, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MISSION VALLEY,
OTHERWISE THE MAJORITY OF THE INLAND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE
MOST PART.
VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...LOCAL NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS INCLUDING BELOW CAJON PASS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...ZUBER
AVIATION/MARINE...STEWEY
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