795
FXUS66 KSGX 280429
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
929 PM PDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AT TIMES THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE PATTERN STARTS TO BEGIN TO FAVOR
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
UPDATE: LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE COAST AND
INLAND VALLEYS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
INTERSECTING THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH
DECREASING HEIGHTS IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WHICH WILL KEEP THE INFLUX
OF THE MARINE LAYER PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY A
TEMPORARY BREAK FOR TOMORROW. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATER IN
THE EVENING ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS IT DOES. THE OTHER MAIN
COMPONENT WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DESERTS, WHICH MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SOME LOCALIZED
LOCATIONS PERIODICALLY EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID, IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE OVER
CRITERIA FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA, WHICH IS WHY A WIND ADVISORY HAS YET
TO BE ISSUED, BUT WILL DO SO IF MODELS BEGIN TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IS
MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUBMITTED AT 147 PM):
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO SCATTER FOR SOME AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, THOUGH NOT AS MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE.
BRIEF SUNSHINE WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOW
CLOUDS SURGE BACK INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL BASIN THIS
EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP PRESENCE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS, WHERE DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE
NEAR 30-45 MPH ACROSS SOME E-W PASSES THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HI-
RES GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS INCREASING AND EXPANDING INTO THE DESERTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHERE WINDS HAVE AROUND A 25-40% CHANCE
OF REACHING 55 MPH IN FAVORED PASSES. COOLING WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INLAND ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE HIGH DESERTS AND HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE COACHELLA
VALLEY.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. A DEEP MARINE LAYER
WILL PERSIST, SO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNINGS WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FOR AREA WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BREEZY BUT
SUNNIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DESERT
AREAS. WINDS LOOK TO LET UP THE MOST ON SATURDAY, WHERE WINDS WILL
BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER. MODEL PROJECTIONS DIVERGE BY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
IS IN QUESTION. A SERIES OF TROUGHS TO THE NORTH WILL TRY TO
MAINTAIN THE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND BREEZIER PATTERN BUT THE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH MAY BRING MORE INFLUENCE. NBM WAS USED FOR NOW, WHICH
LEANS TOWARD A COOLER AND WINDIER PATTERN. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
THE TROUGHS PUSH SOUTH, WE MAY SEE A NOTABLE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS (25-45% CHANCE) MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW WETTEST SOLUTIONS LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD STILL HAS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY SO THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS WE GET CLOSER IN
TIME.
AVIATION
280330Z...COAST/VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS...LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL THE COASTAL
BASIN THIS EVENING. BASES ABOVE 3000 FEET MSL WILL LOWER TO 1500
FEET BY 07Z, THEN RISE TO 2500 FEET AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. TOPS WILL
REMAIN 4000-5000 FEET MSL AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS, REDUCING VIS THERE
OR OBSCURING THAT HIGHER TERRAIN. SCATTER OUT EXPECTED FRIDAY 17-
19Z, BUT WITH THICKENING CLOUDS ABOVE 15000 FEET MSL. LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN IN SIMILAR FASHION AFTER 01Z
FRIDAY EVENING, WITH BASES 2000-3000 FEET MSL AND REDUCED VIS
AGAINST FOOTHILLS.
HIGHER MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20000 FEET
MSL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-50 KTS OVER
THE RIDGES AND DESERT SLOPES THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF MODERATE
UP/DOWNDRAFTS, INCLUDING LOCALIZED LLWS AND ROTORS, IN LEE OF
MOUNTAINS.
MARINE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL GENERATE
STEEP WAVES AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS IN THE OUTER WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTAINS THE DETAILS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
CONTINUE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME THEY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS.
BEACHES
ELEVATED SURF OF 4-8 FEET, WITH LOCAL SETS TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK AND ASSOCIATED DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS, AS WELL
AS POSSIBLE COASTAL EROSION. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT CONTAIN THE DETAILS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 1 AM PDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
10 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
UPDATE...STEWEY
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...MARTIN
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