623
FXUS66 KSGX 281058
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
358 AM PDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AT TIMES, MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
STRONGER GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO
INCREASE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, THERE IS
GROWING SPREAD IN THE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE RESULTING
TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA
COAST HAS PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT OF THE MARINE LAYER FOR DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT SHOWERS SINCE LATE THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE MOST MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS, THERE HAVE
BEEN ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY TO 0.09 INCH
THROUGH 3 AM WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND
COASTAL AREAS INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS HAVING RECEIVED AROUND 0.2
INCH.
COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUING CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE FROM THE MARINE LAYER,
MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTS INTO THE MORNINGS. THE NAM MOS HAS
GENERALLY BEEN BEST IN SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY WITH HREF MEMBERS
OVERNIGHT HAVING TOO LITTLE PRECIPITATION FOR COASTAL AREAS WITH
TOO MUCH IN THE MOUNTAINS.
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ALONG THE BELOW THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE STRONGER GUSTS MOSTLY 40 TO
50 MPH WITH ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN STATES ON MONDAY DIVERGES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A WIDENING RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS LOWER THAN AVERAGE OVERLAP AMONG THE RANGE
OF SOLUTIONS FROM EACH ENSEMBLE SYSTEM.
NBM DAILY CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE STILL GREATEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT ARE LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY NOW MOSTLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT AND ON THURSDAY
35 TO 45 PERCENT.
COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
AVIATION
280900Z...COAST/VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS...LAYERED LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED
THE COASTAL BASIN WITH CEILINGS OF 1500 AND 2500 FEET MSL NEAR THE
COAST AND 3000-4000 FEET MSL EXTENDING TO INLAND AREAS. LOWEST BASES
RISE TO 2500 FEET MSL AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. ISOLATED POCKETS OF
-RA ARE BEING OBSERVED, REDUCING VIS 3-5 SM LOCALLY THROUGH 15Z.
TOPS WILL REMAIN 4000-5000 FEET MSL AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS, REDUCING
VIS THERE OR OBSCURING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SCATTER OUT EXPECTED 17-
19Z, BUT WITH THICKENING CLOUDS ABOVE 15000 FEET MSL. LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN IN SIMILAR FASHION AFTER 01Z
THIS EVENING, WITH BASES 2000-3000 FEET MSL AND REDUCED VIS AGAINST
FOOTHILLS.
HIGHER MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20000 FEET
MSL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-50 KTS OVER THE RIDGES AND
DESERT SLOPES THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS,
INCLUDING LOCALIZED LLWS AND ROTORS, IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS.
MARINE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL GENERATE STEEP
WAVES AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS IN THE OUTER WATERS,
DIMINISHING SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTAINS THE DETAILS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
AT THIS TIME THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS.
BEACHES
ELEVATED SURF OF 4-8 FEET, WITH LOCAL SETS TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
AND ASSOCIATED DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
COASTAL EROSION. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
CONTAIN THE DETAILS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO 60 NM OUT
INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...WESTERINK/ZUBER
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