105
FXUS66 KSGX 282056
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
156 PM PDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
WEATHER. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE EACH MORNING AS WELL. QUITE THE CONSISTENT TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH HIGHS UP TO 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EACH DAY. CHANCES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE DESERTS ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR AS
CUMULUS BUBBLE ACROSS THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEY REGIONS. ONSHORE
WINDS CONTINUE, STRONGEST ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL DIP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN WEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
HREF/NBM MODEL PROBABILITIES INCREASE CHANCES FOR WINDS OVER 45
MPH LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, NOTABLY EAST-WEST
PASSES. THEREFORE, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ANZA-
BORREGO DESERT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS 30-40 MPH.
THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DEEP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LIKE THIS MORNING, SOME COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE MORE LIGHT
DRIZZLE/RAIN EACH MORNING, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST
DAY FOR CLEARING LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS,
THOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN. A DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH
WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BY WEDNESDAY ONWARD. MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TROUGHING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK, BUT WHERE SPECIFIC SHORTWAVES
SET UP IS STILL IN QUESTION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS MANY ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW FOR THE
PERIOD, THOUGH MODELS HAVE TRENDED LIGHTER AND LATER IN TIME. THE
SLIGHT CHANCE IS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FOCUS STARTS
TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGE OPEN
WAVE TROUGH MAY PUSH SOUTH ENOUGH TO LEAD TO AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIP AS NBM CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ARE AROUND 25-45
PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
282045Z...COAST/VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS...CUMULUS FIELD LARGELY BASED NEAR
2000-3000FT MSL PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS MOSTLY SCT
THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF BKN WILL OCCUR. LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP ACROSS
THE COASTAL BASIN AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, WITH MORE FULL COVERAGE BY
03-04Z. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF CIGS AT KSAN (90%) AND CRQ (80%) BUT
SNA HAS A 40-60% CHANCE OF SEEING BKN COVERAGE TONIGHT. BASES
REMAINING 2000-3000FT MSL OVERNIGHT WITH TOPS UP TO 4000FT. PATCHES
OF DZ IS POSSIBLE FROM THESE CLOUDS AGAIN, WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE
VIS TO 4-6 SM. CLOUDS LOOK TO DEGRADE BACK TO SCT (AND OCCASIONALLY
BKN) CUMULUS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.
HIGHER MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25000 FEET MSL TODAY.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-50 KTS OVER THE RIDGES AND
DESERT SLOPES THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS,
INCLUDING LOCALIZED LLWS AND ROTORS, IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS.
MARINE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
20-25KTS, PRIMARILY IN THE OUTER WATERS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A
POTENT NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL GENERATE OCCASIONALLY STEEP WAVES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL GENERATE STEEP WAVES AND HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS IN THE OUTER WATERS, DIMINISHING SATURDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTAINS THE DETAILS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS.
BEACHES
ELEVATED SURF OF 4-8 FEET, WITH LOCAL SETS TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
AND ASSOCIATED DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
COASTAL EROSION. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
REMAINS IN EFFECT AND CONTAINS MORE DETAILS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO 60 NM OUT
INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...MUNYAN
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