968
FXUS66 KSGX 291133
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
433 AM PDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL, BREEZY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURES PASS OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES, BUT AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY TO BE LOW OVERALL, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER, STRONGER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK, BUT MODELS STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
POSITION.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SHORT TERM
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING,
BRINGING GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS WELL
AS AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW STATIONS
IN THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAVE
REPORTED 0.01-0.02" OF ACCUMULATION IN THE PAST 6 HOURS - NOT
IMPRESSIVE OVERALL BUT ENOUGH TO GET WINDSHIELDS WET IN A FEW
AREAS. MEANWHILE, WEST WINDS ARE LOCALLY GUSTING 30-55 MPH ON THE
DESERT SLOPES INTO THE DESERTS, STRONGEST THROUGH THE PASSES.
CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE EAST, WITH WINDS DECREASING
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THEY'LL REMAIN
BREEZY.
LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP OVER THE DAY TODAY, THOUGH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED ALL DAY, WITH INCREASE
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT WARMER (1-4 DEGREES HIGHER) TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
MOST NOTICEABLE INLAND. CLOUDS WILL MAKE A COMEBACK IN THE EVENING
AS ANOTHER, EVEN WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD LATE
TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MORE PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE MORNING SUNDAY. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP WEST WINDS BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ESPECIALLY DESERTS.
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY OUTSIDE OF THE DESERTS, WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 0.60-0.85", WE'D NORMALLY EXPECT FAIRLY GOOD RAIN, BUT
WITH ZONAL (NEARLY DUE WEST TO EAST) FLOW ALOFT, THERE ISN'T GOOD
MECHANISM FOR LIFT THAT WOULD ALLOW THE WATER TO BE RELEASED FROM
THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IN OTHER WORDS, THE COAST AND
VALLEYS WILL LIKELY MOSTLY MISS OUT ON MUCH PRECIPITATION, WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS ADDING UP TO LIKELY 0.10" OR LESS OVER THE DAY
MONDAY. THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY FAIR
BETTER AS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL PROVIDE OROGRAPHIC LIFT, WITH
A 20-40% CHANCE FOR ABOUT 0.20" AND AND 10-30% CHANCE FOR 0.30"
INDICATED BY THE CW3E WEST-WRF ENSEMBLE FOR STATIONS ON THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. WEST WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS/DESERT SLOPES AND SPREAD INTO THE DESERTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY PER A FEW GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, MORE LIKELY WE'LL
HAVE A DRY PERIOD WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. A DEEPER,
STRONGER TROUGH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION LATE IN
THE WEEK. THE GEFS MEMBERS THAT ARE INDICATING PRECIPITATION HAVE
THE SYSTEM MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHILE THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A GREATER SPREAD IN TIMING THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK. WHILE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS, COOL, CLOUDY, AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
290930Z...COAST/VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS...LAYERS OF LOW CLOUDS BASED AT
1500-4000 FEET MSL AND TOPS TO 5500 FEET WILL LOWER TO MOSTLY AROUND
1500 FEET THIS MORNING, EXCEPT IN VCNTY KSNA WHERE CIGS WILL BE
INTERMITTENT. PATCHY -DZ AND VIS 4-6SM AND AREAS OF VIS 0-2SM ON
FOOTHILLS. AFTER 15Z, CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND THEN PARTIALLY
CLEAR BY 18-20Z. PATCHY BKN CLOUDS AOA 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS TO GATHER AGAIN AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, MOSTLY BETWEEN 2000-
3000 FEET MSL. BKN-OVC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH
MORE PATCHY CLOUD COVERAGE FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE.
BASES WILL LIFT TO 3500-4500 FT MSL OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. ABOVE THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER, SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000 FEET MSL THROUGH
SUNDAY.
HIGHER MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...BKN-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000 FEET MSL.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-50 KTS OVER THE RIDGES AND
DESERT SLOPES THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS OF MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS,
INCLUDING LOCALIZED LLWS AND ROTORS, IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS.
MARINE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND STEEP WAVES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING, DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTAINS
THE DETAILS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, THEN INCREASE AGAIN WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 35 KNOTS
AND STEEP SEAS TO 11 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
ELEVATED SURF OF 4-8 FEET, WITH LOCAL SETS TO 10 FEET IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND
ASSOCIATED DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
COASTAL EROSION. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
REMAINS IN EFFECT AND CONTAINS MORE DETAILS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WATERS
FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO
60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
PUBLIC...CSP
AVIATION/MARINE...WESTERINK
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