044
FXUS66 KSGX 291755
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1030 AM PDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL, BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH PATCHY MORNING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY UNDER MOIST WEST
FLOW. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY AS THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. A DEEPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS PREVAILED WITH LOW CLOUDS MOST PREVALENT IN
WESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING OVER AS WELL. LOCAL
LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW
STATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS OF MAINLY SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAVING REPORTED
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP. THERE WERE AREAS OF
MODERATELY STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH WHITE
WATER WEST STILL GUSTING TO 53 MPH AS OF 10 AM. THE WIND ADVISORY IS
SET TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM, THOUGH WINDS WILL ONLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BROAD MODERATE TROUGHING COVERED MOST OF THE WESTERN US WITH A WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW FROM SAN
DIEGO SOUTH TO THE SOUTH TOP OF BAJA. A BROAD UPPER LOW WAS OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THAT UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY COVERING MOST OF THE
WEST COAST. THE DAY 5 CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR THU USING THE
ENS/GEFS/GEM SHOWS 68% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING THE MEAN
TROUGHING NEARLY OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE EAST, BUT WITH 16%
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER WEST AND 16% SIGNFICANTLY FARTHER EAST.
CLUSTER 4 WITH THE WESTERN SOLUTION IS THE WETTEST, THOUGH SOME
PRECIP COULD RESULT FROM THE OVERHEAD TROUGHING. REGARDLESS, THERE
SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS, DESERTS AND
COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES, WITH MID-WEEK HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS
WHEN GUSTS OVER 60 MPH COULD OCCUR LOCALLY. EVEN IF WE GET AWAY
WITHOUT A WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT, WE WILL NEED ONE ALMOST
CONTINUOUSLY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. EVEN BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGHING WED/THU, THERE
COULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE MOISTURE/WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ALBEIT WEAK DYNAMICS. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
BEST DAY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH NEAR SATURATION IN THE LOWEST 6000-
8000 FEET AND 850-MB WINDS 20-40 KNOTS. THIS WOULD LIKELY JUST BRING
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT LOWER ELEVATION, BUT SOME WEST SLOPE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD GET OVER 0.25", ESPECIALLY SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5-10 DEG F BELOW
AVERAGE MOST OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
CLOSER TO AVERAGE, OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK.
SOME RECOVERY IN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR AROUND SAT OF NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH ABOUT HALF THE ENSEMBLES HOLD ONTO A CLOSED/SEMI-CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WOULD DELAY THAT RECOVERY.
AVIATION
291645Z... COAST/VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS... BKN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS PRESENT
THIS MORNING ARE BEGINNING TO DEGRADE TO A MORE SCT CUMULUS SETUP
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ORANGE COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE ARE SEEING
MOSTLY SCATTERED CUMULUS NOW, AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY WILL FOLLOW SUIT
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WHILE COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO BE SCT, CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN
NEAR 2500-3500FT MSL AND COULD OCCASIONALLY BE BKN AT TIMES,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE COASTAL BASIN.
LOW CLOUDS TO REGATHER AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING, WITH BASES LARGELY STILL NEAR 2500-3500FT MSL INITIALLY.
CLOUD BASES LOOK TO LIFT TO 3500-4500FT MSL OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BY
AROUND 12Z.
HIGHER MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000 FEET MSL.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTS 30-50 KTS OVER THE RIDGES AND IN WIND-PRONE MOUNTAIN PASSES,
WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS WITHIN THE OPEN DESERTS. AREAS OF MODERATE
UP/DOWNDRAFTS, INCLUDING LOCALIZED LLWS AND ROTORS, IN LEE OF
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES.
MARINE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OBSERVED PRIMARILY OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE
STARTING TO FALL BELOW 20KTS AT THIS HOUR AND SEAS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL. WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 10FT AND OCCASIONALLY
STEEP WAVES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, BUT THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK TO EXPIRE BY 18Z THIS MORNING. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED (AFTERNOON GUSTS 15-20KTS
WITH SEAS 5-7FT) THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THEN INCREASE AGAIN WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 35 KNOTS AND STEEP SEAS TO 11 FEET FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
ELEVATED SURF OF 4-8 FEET, WITH LOCAL SETS TO 10 FEET REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK AND ASSOCIATED DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE COASTAL EROSION. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT AND CONTAINS MORE DETAILS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WATERS
FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO
60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...WESTERINK/MUNYAN
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