773
FXUS66 KSGX 292048
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL, BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH WEST WINDS
LOCALLY GUSTING OVER 50 MPH ON THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. A DEEPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS, AND IT WILL GET BREEZY NEAR THE COAST TOO ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH QUITE A FEW LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S IN THE LOWER DESERTS. IT
WAS STILL WINDY IN SOME OF THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND THROUG=H
SAN GORGONIO PASS, AND WHITE WATER WEST WAS GUSTING TO 55 MPH AT 1
PM. A NEW WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THEN EXCEPT FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT PEAK IN
THE GUST SPEEDS THIS EVENING.
BROAD MODERATE TROUGHING COVERED MOST OF THE WESTERN US WITH A WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW FROM SAN
DIEGO SOUTH TO THE SOUTH TOP OF BAJA. A BROAD UPPER LOW WAS OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THAT UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY COVERING MOST OF THE
WEST COAST. THE DAY 5 CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR THU USING THE
ENS/GEFS/GEM SHOWS 68% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING THE MEAN
TROUGHING NEARLY OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE EAST, BUT WITH 16%
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER WEST AND 16% SIGNFICANTLY FARTHER EAST.
CLUSTER 4 WITH THE WESTERN SOLUTION IS THE WETTEST, THOUGH SOME
PRECIP COULD RESULT FROM THE OVERHEAD TROUGHING. REGARDLESS, THERE
SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS, DESERTS AND
COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES, WITH MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS TUESDAY. GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH COULD OCUR MONDAY OR TUESDAY LOCALLY. WE WILL NEED A
WIND ADVISORY ALMOST CONTINUOUSLY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. EVEN BEFORE THE MAIN
TROUGHING WED/THU, THERE COULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE/WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ALBEIT WEAK DYNAMICS. MONDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH NEAR SATURATION IN THE
LOWEST 6000-8000 FEET AND 850-MB WINDS 20-40 KNOTS. THIS WOULD
LIKELY JUST BRING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT LOWER ELEVATION,
BUT SOME WEST SLOPE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD GET OVER 0.25",
ESPECIALLY SAN DIEGO COUNTY. OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 DEG F BELOW AVERAGE MOST OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY CLOSER TO AVERAGE, OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOME RECOVERY IN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
OCCUR AROUND SAT OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ABOUT HALF THE ENSEMBLES HOLD
ONTO A CLOSED/SEMI-CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WOULD DELAY
THAT RECOVERY.
AVIATION
292030Z... COAST/VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS... FEW-SCT CU FIELD BASED AT 3000-
4000FT MSL PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REGATHER AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING, INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY 02-03Z. BASES COULD BE
NEAR 2500-3500FT MSL INITIALLY, BUT SHOULD LIFT TO 3500-4500FT MSL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BY 09-12Z.
HIGHER MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000 FEET MSL.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTS 30-50 KTS OVER THE RIDGES AND IN WIND-PRONE MOUNTAIN PASSES,
WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS WITHIN THE OPEN DESERTS. AREAS OF MODERATE
UP/DOWNDRAFTS, INCLUDING LOCALIZED LLWS AND ROTORS, IN LEE OF
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WANE TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED (AFTERNOON GUSTS 15-20KTS WITH SEAS 5-7FT) THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS THEN INCREASE AGAIN WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 35
KNOTS AND STEEP SEAS TO 11 FEET FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
AS THE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WANES TODAY, SURF WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. ELEVATED SURF OF 4-7 FEET, WITH LOCAL SETS TO 8
FEET AND ASSOCIATED HIGH RIP CURRENT RISKS REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4PM PDT AND CONTAINS MORE
DETAILS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...WESTERINK/MUNYAN
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