737
FXUS66 KSGX 300443
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
943 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL, BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH WEST WINDS
LOCALLY GUSTING OVER 50 MPH ON THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. A DEEPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS, AND IT WILL GET BREEZY NEAR THE COAST TOO ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
EVENING UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS MANAGED TO CLEAR OUT OF MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FILL IN ACROSS SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH LESS
COVERAGE OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE. THE 00Z KNKX
SOUNDING SHOWS A MARINE INVERSION BASED NEAR 2500 FT MSL. THE
NEAR-SATURATED LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW, SO WHILE PATCHY DRIZZLE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, THE CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. OTHERWISE, WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50-55 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BROAD MODERATE TROUGHING COVERED MOST OF THE WESTERN US WITH A WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW FROM SAN
DIEGO SOUTH TO THE SOUTH TOP OF BAJA. A BROAD UPPER LOW WAS OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THAT UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY COVERING MOST OF THE
WEST COAST. THE DAY 5 CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR THU USING THE
ENS/GEFS/GEM SHOWS 68% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING THE MEAN
TROUGHING NEARLY OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE EAST, BUT WITH 16%
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER WEST AND 16% SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER EAST.
CLUSTER 4 WITH THE WESTERN SOLUTION IS THE WETTEST, THOUGH SOME
PRECIP COULD RESULT FROM THE OVERHEAD TROUGHING. REGARDLESS, THERE
SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS, DESERTS AND
COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES, WITH MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS TUESDAY. GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH COULD OCCUR MONDAY OR TUESDAY LOCALLY. WE WILL NEED A
WIND ADVISORY ALMOST CONTINUOUSLY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. EVEN BEFORE THE MAIN
TROUGHING WED/THU, THERE COULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS GIVEN
THE MOISTURE/WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ALBEIT WEAK DYNAMICS. MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH NEAR SATURATION
IN THE LOWEST 6000-8000 FEET AND 850-MB WINDS 20-40 KNOTS. THIS
WOULD LIKELY JUST BRING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT LOWER
ELEVATION, BUT SOME WEST SLOPE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD GET OVER
0.25", ESPECIALLY SAN DIEGO COUNTY. OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 DEG F BELOW AVERAGE MOST OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY CLOSER TO AVERAGE, OR EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOME RECOVERY IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR AROUND SAT OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ABOUT
HALF THE ENSEMBLES HOLD ONTO A CLOSED/SEMI-CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST, WHICH WOULD DELAY THAT RECOVERY.
AVIATION
300330Z... COAST/VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS...LOW CLOUDS OF ROUGHLY 2000-3000
FEET MSL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. BASES COULD
BE NEAR 2500-3500FT MSL INITIALLY, BUT SHOULD LIFT TO 3500-4500FT
MSL OVERNIGHT BY 09-12Z. THERE WILL BE THICKENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER TOMORROW, WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING FOR SOME OF THE INLAND
VALLEYS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY -DZ AND/OR -RA BY TOMORROW
EVENING, WITH BKN-OVC COVERAGE THICKENING AND BECOMING PREDOMINANT,
WHILE DROPPING TO AROUND 1500-3000 FT MSL GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHER MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000 FEET MSL.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTS 30-50 KTS OVER THE RIDGES AND IN WIND-PRONE MOUNTAIN PASSES,
WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS WITHIN THE OPEN DESERTS. AREAS OF MODERATE
UP/DOWNDRAFTS, INCLUDING LOCALIZED LLWS AND ROTORS, IN LEE OF
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WANE TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED (AFTERNOON GUSTS 15-20KTS WITH SEAS 5-7FT) THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS THEN INCREASE AGAIN WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 35
KNOTS AND STEEP SEAS TO 11 FEET FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
THERE WILL BE ELEVATED SURF OF 3-6 FEET TOMORROW, WITH LOCAL SETS TO
8 FEET AND ASSOCIATED HIGH RIP CURRENT RISKS REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THROUGH TOMORROW.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...STEWEY
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