868
FXUS66 KSGX 301137
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
437 AM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN U.S., BRINGING COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS, AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY INTO
MONDAY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AROUND THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD TO THE COAST AS
WELL TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW TO AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND
AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY. LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO COME
OF IT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHEN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST JUST ENOUGH TO
BRING LIGHT, SPOTTY RAIN TO THE REGION. EVEN THEN, FORCING IS
MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES, 0.10"
OR LESS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL FAIR BETTER, WITH STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT
PROVIDING ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO RESULT IN 0.10-0.30" ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS, 0.25-0.50" FOR FAVORED SLOPES IN THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SAN DIEGO MOUNTAINS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PACNW BROADENS AND SETTLES INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CUT OFF THE SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BRING SHOWERS TO AN
END FOR MOST AREAS BY MONDAY EVENING, BUT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT PROVIDED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE RIDGE LEVEL WILL
CONTINUE SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN
SLOPES AS WELL AS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOCALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN
SLOPES INTO THE DESERTS, WITH GUSTS 50-55 MPH THROUGH THE PASSES,
MAY BRIEFLY WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
PASSES TO THE EAST, BUT THIS WILL BE MINOR AND BRIEF AS WINDS COME
BACK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED TROUGHINESS ALOFT,
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS, WITH PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD TUESDAY STARTING IN THE EARLY
MORNING AS THE TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS. COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.
THERE IS ANOTHER 10-15% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALLER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH DOWN THE BROADER TROUGH INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT, WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY CONSENSUS
SHOWN BY THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS BEING A MORE INTERIOR TRACK
FOR THE TROUGH BEFORE THE LOW SETTLES OVERHEAD. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN A LACK OF MOISTURE BEING AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM, WITH
GENERALLY ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS PARTS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
300900Z...COAST/VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS...LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-
3500FT MSL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THIS
MORNING, LIFTING TO 3500-4500FT BY 12Z. ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL
OCCUR TODAY FOR SOME OF THE INLAND VALLEYS AND COASTAL SLOPES,
ELSEWHERE REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY DZ AND/OR -RA DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS
THICKEN. BASES FALL TO 1000-1500FT MSL IN ANY -RA OR DZ. OTHERWISE,
VARYING BASES OF 1500-3500FT MSL TONIGHT THROUGH 10-12Z MONDAY WHEN
SHRA AND HEAVIER RA MOVES IN WITH LOCALLY LOW BASES BELOW 1000FT MSL
AND VIS DOWN TO 1-3SM. VIS BELOW 1SM ALONG COASTAL SLOPES WHERE LOW
CLOUDS INTERSECT HIGHER TERRAIN.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000FT MSL. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTS 30-50 KTS OVER THE
RIDGES AND IN WIND-PRONE MOUNTAIN PASSES, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS
WITHIN THE OPEN DESERTS. AREAS OF MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS, INCLUDING
LOCALIZED LLWS AND ROTORS, IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SHRA MOVES IN AFTER 10Z MONDAY, WITH LOW VIS LOCALLY BELOW 1SM WITH
ANY SHRA.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WANE TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITH GUSTS 10-15KTS AND SEAS 4-6FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SHORT PERIOD (7-8 SECONDS) NORTHWEST SWELL (290-300
DEGREES) ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY, BRINGING STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS TO 10-
12 FEET. WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY, GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS,
PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY
FALL ON THURSDAY.
BEACHES
ELEVATED SURF OF 3-6 FEET THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LOCAL SETS TO 7 FEET
AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISKS REMAINS POSSIBLE.
HIGHER SURF DEVELOPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO 5-7 FEET AND SETS TO 9
FEET, LOCALLY TO 10 FEET FOR WEST-FACING BEACHES. A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL EXIST FOR ALL BEACHES FOR BOTH DAYS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CSP
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...ZUBER
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