963
FXUS66 KSGX 301734
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1000 AM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION, WITH GREATEST CHANCES MONDAY AND
THURSDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH WINDY WEATHER IN COASTAL AREAS AS WELL
TUESDAY. FAIR WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
LIGHT RAIN PASSED OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND THE NW PARTS OF THE INLAND
EMPIRE EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BARELY HAVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING FULLERTON AIRPORT AT 0.01".
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING OVER SOCAL AND BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH
A 524 DAM LOW AT 500 MB AROUND 500 MILES OFF THE OREGON COAST. THAT
LOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA. THAT WILL INCREASE OUR WINDS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING MOUNTAIN/DESERT WINDS MONDAY. ALSO, WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING IN THE WESTERLIES, THE MOSTLY 30-40 KT 850 MB WINDS WILL
ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AS THAT LEVEL WILL BE SATURATED.
OVERALL, THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES
(LOCALLY HIGHER) AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD
EXCEED 0.5 INCHES OR EVEN VERY LOCALLY 1.0 INCHES FROM OROGRAPHICS
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT LACK OF ANY STRONG
DYNAMICS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON THE PRECIP AMOUNTS.
REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR PRECIP MON, SO WILL RAISE POPS
CCNSIDERABLY, MOSTLY TO 60-80%. LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS EXPECTED THOUGH
AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 7500 FEET THROUGH MON AFTERNOON, ALBEIT
WITH LOWERING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP WANES. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
TUE COULD BRING A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER OROGRAPHIC AREAS.
WITH THE CLOUDS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MON, THEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS
TUE-THU AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND BRINGS COLDER AIR ALOFT.
LOCAL GUSTS OVER 60 MPH COULD OCCUR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS, ESPECIALLY DESERT SLOPES, BUT TUE WILL HAVE MORE
WIDESPREAD WINDS, INCLUDING NEAR THE COAST, EVEN IF THE HIGHEST
GUSTS ON DESERT SLOPES ARE NOT MODELED TO BE ANY HIGHER. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE MSLP GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE, AND SO THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN TUE VERSUS MESOSCALE/MOUNTAIN WAVE
DRIVEN MON.
ENSEMBLES ARE AT MUCH GREATER CONSENSUS FOR THE THU EVENT WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS FAIRLY CLOSE TO OVERHEAD BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED
MOISTURE. OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.20" RANGE
EXCEPT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW
ABOVE 4500-5500 FEET MSL. THE PRECIP COULD VARY IN AMOUNTS OVER
SHORTER DISTANCES DUE TO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN MORE
CONVECTIVE VS. STRATIFORM PRECIP, THOUGH INSTABILITY VALUES DO NOT
LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST FRI/SAT, THOUGH MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA, AND ONLY 7% OF SOLUTIONS IN THE
CLUSTER ANALYSIS HAVE STRONG RIDGING HERE. REGARDLESS, IT SHOULD BE
WARMER AND DRIER BUT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET TO OR ABOVE NORMAL
UNTIL AROUND SUN.
AVIATION
301645Z...COAST/VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS...MULTIPLE LAYERS OF VARYING BASES
ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
(PRIMARILY IN ORANGE COUNTY) AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
THE LOWER AND MORE IMPACTFUL LAYER OF CLOUDS IS GENERALLY AROUND
2000-2500FT MSL WITH MOSTLY SCT COVERAGE THOUGH WILL BE
INTERMITTENTLY BKN. THIS SETUP OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH MORE UNIFORM CLOUD COVERAGE FILLING BACK IN THIS EVENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 00-06Z AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
BASES INITIALLY LOOK TO BE AROUND 2000-3000FT MSL BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO 1000-2000FT BY 06-09Z. PATCHY DZ AND/OR -RA CHANCES
INCREASE BY 09Z AS WELL, WHICH MAY LOCALLY BRING BASES BELOW 1000FT
AND VIS TO 2-5SM. VIS BELOW 1SM ALONG COASTAL SLOPES WHERE LOW
CLOUDS INTERSECT HIGHER TERRAIN.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000FT MSL. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTS 30-50 KTS OVER THE
RIDGES AND IN WIND-PRONE MOUNTAIN PASSES, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS
WITHIN THE OPEN DESERTS. AREAS OF MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS, INCLUDING
LOCALIZED LLWS AND ROTORS, IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SHRA MOVES IN AFTER 10Z MONDAY, WITH LOW VIS LOCALLY BELOW 1SM WITH
ANY SHRA.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WANE TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITH GUSTS 10-15KTS AND SEAS 4-6FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SHORT PERIOD (7-8 SECONDS) NORTHWEST SWELL (290-300
DEGREES) ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY, BRINGING STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS TO 10-
12 FEET. WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY, GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS,
PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY
FALL ON THURSDAY.
BEACHES
ELEVATED SURF OF 3-6 FEET THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LOCAL SETS TO 7 FEET
AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISKS REMAINS POSSIBLE.
HIGHER SURF DEVELOPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO 5-7 FEET AND SETS TO 9
FEET, LOCALLY TO 10 FEET FOR WEST-FACING BEACHES. A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL EXIST FOR ALL BEACHES FOR BOTH DAYS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...ZUBER/MUNYAN
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