798
FXUS66 KSGX 302054 CCA
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION, WITH GREATEST CHANCES MONDAY AND
THURSDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS, WITH WINDY WEATHER IN COASTAL AREAS AS WELL
TUESDAY. FAIR WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
LIGHT RAIN PASSED OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND THE NW PARTS OF THE INLAND
EMPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BARELY HAVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING FULLERTON AIRPORT AT 0.01".
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE TODAY. TEMPERATURES AT EARLY
AFTERNOON WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN COASTSAL AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE LOWER DESERTS.
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING OVER SOCAL AND BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH
A 524 DAM LOW AT 500 MB AROUND 400 MILES OFF THE OREGON COAST. THAT
LOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA. THAT WILL INCREASE OUR WINDS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING MOUNTAIN/DESERT WINDS MONDAY. ALSO, WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING IN THE WESTERLIES, THE MOSTLY 30-40 KT 850 MB WINDS WILL
ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AS THAT LEVEL WILL BE SATURATED.
OVERALL, THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES
(LOCALLY HIGHER) AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD
EXCEED 0.5 INCHES OR EVEN VERY LOCALLY REACH 1.0 INCHES FROM
OROGRAPHICS MONDAY. THERE WILL BE WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACTIVITY
MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT LACK OF ANY
STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON THE PRECIP AMOUNTS.
REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR PRECIP MON, SO WILL RAISE POPS
CCNSIDERABLY, MOSTLY TO 60-80%. LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS EXPECTED THOUGH
AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 7500 FEET THROUGH MON AFTERNOON, ALBEIT
WITH LOWERING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP WANES. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
TUE COULD BRING A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER OROGRAPHIC AREAS.
WITH THE CLOUDS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MON, THEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS
TUE-THU AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND BRINGS COLDER AIR ALOFT.
LOCAL GUSTS OVER 60 MPH COULD OCCUR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS, ESPECIALLY DESERT SLOPES, BUT TUE WILL HAVE MORE
WIDESPREAD WINDS, INCLUDING NEAR THE COAST, EVEN IF THE HIGHEST
GUSTS ON DESERT SLOPES ARE NOT MODELED TO BE ANY HIGHER. GUSTS COULD
REACH 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS BECAUSE THE MSLP GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE, AND SO THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE MORE SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN TUE VERSUS MESOSCALE/MOUNTAIN WAVE DRIVEN MON. BLOWING DUST
COULD OCCUR AT TIMES IN THE DESERTS.
ENSEMBLES ARE AT MUCH GREATER CONSENSUS FOR THE THU EVENT WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS, FROM THAT SAME LOW THAT IS NOW OFF THE OREGON COAST,
FAIRLY CLOSE TO OVERHEAD BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE. OVERALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.20" RANGE EXCEPT HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WHERE THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 4500-5500 FEET
MSL. THE PRECIP COULD VARY IN AMOUNTS OVER SHORTER DISTANCES DUE TO
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN MORE CONVECTIVE VS. STRATIFORM
PRECIP, THOUGH INSTABILITY VALUES DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST FRI/SAT, THOUGH MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA, AND ONLY 7% OF SOLUTIONS IN THE
CLUSTER ANALYSIS HAVE STRONG RIDGING HERE. REGARDLESS, IT SHOULD BE
WARMER AND DRIER BUT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET TO OR ABOVE NORMAL
UNTIL AROUND SUN.
AVIATION
302045Z...COAST/VALLEYS/COASTAL SLOPES...SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES GENERALLY AT 3500-5000FT
MSL WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOUND OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. LOWER
CLOUDS LOOK TO FILL BACK IN THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH 00-06Z AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. BASES INITIALLY
LOOK TO BE AROUND 2000-3000FT MSL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 1000-
2000FT BY 06-09Z. PATCHY DZ AND/OR -RA CHANCES INCREASE BY 09Z AS
WELL, WHICH MAY LOCALLY BRING BASES BELOW 1000FT AND VIS TO 2-5SM,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z. VIS BELOW 1SM ALONG COASTAL SLOPES WHERE LOW
CLOUDS INTERSECT HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF BY
21-00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHER MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000FT MSL WITH
OCCASIONAL WAVE CLOUDS PRESENT AT 12000-15000FT MSL. STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTS 30-50 KTS OVER THE RIDGES AND
IN WIND-PRONE MOUNTAIN PASSES, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS WITHIN THE OPEN
DESERTS. AREAS OF MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS, INCLUDING LOCALIZED LLWS
AND ROTORS, IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES.
MARINE
CALMER SEAS AND WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BUT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
LIKELY RETURN ON TUESDAY. A SHORT PERIOD (7-8 SECONDS) NORTHWEST
SWELL (290-300 DEGREES) ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY, BRINGING VERY STEEP
AND CHOPPY SEAS TO 10-13 FEET. WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS WELL,
GUSTING TO 30-35 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND TO 25-30 KTS FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY FALL ON THURSDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTAINS MORE
DETAILS.
BEACHES
ELEVATED SURF OF 3-6 FEET THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE
TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISKS POSSIBLE. HIGHER SURF DEVELOPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO 5-7 FEET AND SETS TO 8 FEET, LOCALLY TO 10 FEET FOR
WEST-FACING BEACHES. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL EXIST FOR ALL
BEACHES FOR BOTH DAYS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
AND OUT TO 10 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND.
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MUNYAN
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