006
FXUS66 KSGX 311754
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1000 AM PDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY LIGHT, WILL OCCUR AT TIMES, AND AFTER TODAY,
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
OCCUR MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WITH GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH, ISOLATED TO 70 MPH. COASTAL AREAS
WILL BE WINDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS WELL. DRIER WARMER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
LIGHT RAIN COVERED MOST AREAS FROM THE MOUNTAINS WEST TO THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT RADAR SHOWS THAT RAIN MOSTLY RETREATED TO
THE SOUTH HALF OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AS OF AROUND 1000 AM. A FEW
LOCATIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE EXCEEDED 0.30" OF RAIN WITH LYTLE
CREEK CANYON HAVING RECORDED 0.59". OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL, INCLUDING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCAL
WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE OCCURRING AND WILL INCREASE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER 60 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THE
DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST WITH ZONAL
FLOW BUT WITH TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENTS TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTH AND BRING WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
CALIFORNIA BY TUE. A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOCAL TUE NIGHT, AND AHEAD OF THAT, THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS NOT
JUST IN THE MOUNTAINS/DESERTS BUT ALSO ALONG THE COAST AND OVER SOME
VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD BE SOEMWHAT OF AN ENHANCER OF THE PRECIP MOSTLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THU WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE BOTH DEEP AND BROAD BY THEN,
COUPLED WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE US. THAT WAVE WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP, WITH MOST MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING 0.10"-0.25" WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE FOOTHILLS. WE WILL
RAISE POPS FOR THU GIVEN THE RELATIVE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND
THE WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS BEING NEARLY OVERHEAD. A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW COULD FALL IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS AS SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 4500 FEET. NBM 50TH PERCENTILE SNOWFALL HAS LESS THAN ONE
INCH IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, BUT 90TH PERCENTILE SNOWFALL IS 2-4
INCHES THU.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER AZ/NM WITH
SOME CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING HERE WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM NORCAL
NORTH THROUGH THE PACNW. SOME CYCLONIC FLOW EVEN CONTINUES SAT IN
ABOUT 60% OF THE ENSEMBLES PER THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER FRI OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BUT MOST LIKELY IT WILL BE DRY.
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE BASED PARTLY ON THE PROXIMITY
OF THE RIDGE RELATIVE TO THE TROUGH BUT WARMING SHOULD OCCUR FRI-
SUN, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SAT
AND WITH ABOUT A 70% CHANCE OF TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUN-
MON.
AVIATION
311645Z...COAST/VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS...LOW CLOUDS WITH -SHRA AND CIGS
1500-2500 FEET MSL, LOCALLY DOWN TO 500 FEET WITH VIS 2SM IN -RA
WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY ALL DAY. TOPS WILL BE TO 6000 FEET MSL AND
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
00-06Z AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WITH
BASES LIFTING TO 1500-2500 FEET MSL, VIS MOSTLY P6SM, AND ONLY
PATCHY TERRAIN OBSCURED.
HIGHER MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET MSL TODAY
AND TONIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY. GUSTS 30-50 KTS
OVER THE RIDGES AND IN WIND-PRONE MOUNTAIN PASSES, WITH GUSTS 25-35
KTS WITHIN THE OPEN DESERTS. AREAS OF MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS,
INCLUDING LOCALIZED LLWS AND ROTORS, IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS AND
MOUNTAIN PASSES.
MARINE
CALMER SEAS AND WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BUT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
LIKELY RETURN ON TUESDAY. A SHORT PERIOD (7-8 SECONDS) NORTHWEST
SWELL (290-300 DEGREES) ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY, BRINGING VERY STEEP
AND CHOPPY SEAS TO 10-13 FEET. WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS WELL,
GUSTING TO 30-35 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND TO 25-30 KTS FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY FALL ON THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
GALE WATCH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEACHES
ELEVATED SURF OF 3-6 FEET TODAY, WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO HIGH
RIP CURRENT RISKS POSSIBLE. HIGHER SURF DEVELOPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO 5-7 FEET AND SETS TO 8 FEET, LOCALLY TO 10 FEET FOR
WEST-FACING BEACHES. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL EXIST FOR ALL
BEACHES FOR BOTH DAYS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
TO 10 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
AND OUT TO 10 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
EXTENDING 10 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MUNYAN
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