948
FXUS66 KSGX 312052
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY LIGHT, WILL OCCUR AT TIMES, AND AFTER TODAY,
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
OCCUR MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WITH GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH, ISOLATED TO 70 MPH. COASTAL AREAS
WILL BE WINDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS WELL. DRIER WARMER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS COVERED SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AT EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. IT WAS A
COOL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 80 IN THE LOWER DESERTS AT EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST WITH ZONAL
FLOW BUT WITH TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENTS TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTH AND BRING WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
CALIFORNIA BY TUE. A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOCAL TUE NIGHT, AND AHEAD OF THAT, THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS NOT
JUST IN THE MOUNTAINS/DESERTS BUT ALSO ALONG THE COAST AND OVER SOME
VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD BE SOEMWHAT OF AN ENHANCER OF THE PRECIP MOSTLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THU WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE BOTH DEEP AND BROAD BY THEN,
COUPLED WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE US. THAT WAVE WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP, WITH MOST MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING 0.05"-0.25" WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE FOOTHILLS. WE WILL
RAISE POPS FOR THU GIVEN THE RELATIVE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND
THE WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS BEING NEARLY OVERHEAD. A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW COULD FALL IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS AS SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 4500 FEET. NBM 50TH PERCENTILE SNOWFALL HAS LESS THAN ONE
INCH IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, BUT 90TH PERCENTILE SNOWFALL IS 2-4
INCHES THU.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER AZ/NM WITH
SOME CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING HERE WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM NORCAL
NORTH THROUGH THE PACNW. SOME CYCLONIC FLOW EVEN CONTINUES SAT IN
ABOUT 60% OF THE ENSEMBLES PER THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER FRI OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BUT MOST LIKELY IT WILL BE DRY.
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE BASED PARTLY ON THE PROXIMITY
OF THE RIDGE RELATIVE TO THE TROUGH BUT WARMING SHOULD OCCUR FRI-
SUN, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SAT
AND WITH ABOUT A 70% CHANCE OF TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUN-
MON.
AVIATION
312045Z...COAST/VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS...MIST/-RA/DZ IS NOW LARGELY
LIMITED TO SAN DIEGO COUNTY NOW THOUGH VCSH IS POSSIBLE FURTHER
NORTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
PRECIPITATION ARE DOWN TO 500-1000FT MSL, OTHERWISE CIGS IN SD
COUNTY AND ORANGE COUNTY ARE CLOSER TO 1500-2000FT. THE INLAND
EMPIRE IS ENJOYING MORE SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED NEAR 3000FT MSL.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 00-06Z AND
INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WITH BASES EVENTUALLY
LIFTING/SCATTERING AFTER 09Z. ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW PICKS UP AFTER
15Z WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHER MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET MSL TODAY
AND TONIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY. GUSTS 30-50 KTS
OVER THE RIDGES AND IN WIND-PRONE MOUNTAIN PASSES, WITH GUSTS 25-35
KTS WITHIN THE OPEN DESERTS. AREAS OF MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS,
INCLUDING LOCALIZED LLWS AND ROTORS, IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS AND
MOUNTAIN PASSES.
MARINE
CALMER SEAS AND WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BUT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
TO RETURN ON TUESDAY. A SHORT PERIOD (7-8 SECONDS) NORTHWEST SWELL
(290-300 DEGREES) ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY, BRINGING VERY STEEP AND
CHOPPY SEAS TO 10-13 FEET. WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS WELL,
GUSTING TO 30-35 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND TO 25-30 KTS FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY FALL ON THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEE THOSE PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
BEACHES
ELEVATED SURF OF 3-6 FEET TODAY, WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO HIGH
RIP CURRENT RISKS POSSIBLE. HIGHER SURF DEVELOPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO 5-7 FEET AND SETS TO 8 FEET ON WEST-FACING BEACHES.
OCCASIONAL SETS NEAR 9-10 FT POSSIBLE ON WEST FACING BEACHES IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
EXIST FOR ALL BEACHES FOR BOTH DAYS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
AND OUT TO 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
EXTENDING 10 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS
FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO
60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS
FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 10 TO
60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MUNYAN
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