774
FXUS66 KSGX 141648
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
948 AM PDT WED MAY 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. COOLER, CLOUDIER, AND
WINDIER WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
WEAK TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FOR
TODAY AND THURSDAY. HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE, WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR 5 TO 10, LOCALLY UP TO 15 DEGREES OF WARMING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO GET A
LITTLE SHALLOWER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. ON FRIDAY THE
TROUGHING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, WHICH WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS, A DEEPENING MARINE
LAYER, AND AN UPTICK IN WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS.
A DEEPER TROUGHING PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE REMAIN
SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS BUT THERE
IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER WEATHER, INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE, AND STRONGER WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. NBM
CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 50 MPH ARE 40 TO 60
PERCENT FOR THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND INTO THE DESERTS, WITH
CHANCES CLOSER TO 90 PERCENT IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS IN THOSE
GEOGRAPHIC AREAS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIGS SOUTH. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. DUE TO THE
PREDOMINATELY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ARE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY, WITH
SECOND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS. NBM CHANCES OF
RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR
SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND RIVERSIDE/SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS ARE 15 TO 30
PERCENT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ELSEWHERE CHANCES ARE 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE NBM
REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY IS 0.20" FOR SAN DIEGO
COAST/VALLEYS AND SAN BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAIN SLOPES, REASONABLE WORST CASE
SCENARIO FOR TOTAL RAINFALL IS 0.40".
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY MONDAY, AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INCHES CLOSER TO THE WEST
COAST. BY TUESDAY, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW RIDGING
OVER THE WEST COAST. CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NBM WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND AROUND 4 TO
8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS.
AVIATION
141530Z...COAST/VALLEYS... SCT LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO WIDESPREAD SKC BY 18Z. LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 07Z THURSDAY WITH BASES 1500-2000 FT MSL.
CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE COASTS AND WESTERN VALLEYS, LIKELY NOT
REACHING KONT, AND SCATTERING TO THE COASTLINE AROUND 16-18Z.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS
MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED
WESTERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED, BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25-35 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE, TYPICAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...KW
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