911
FXUS66 KSGX 151616
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
916 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY. COOLER, CLOUDIER, AND WINDIER WITH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WARMER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
UPDATE: LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER BEING LOCK
IN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL AND INLAND VALLEYS. CLOUD
BASES HAVE ALSO RISEN SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET AND THICKENED UP
SLIGHTLY. THIS SHOULD ALL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT, FROM EAST TO
WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
FROM LA JOLLA DOWN TO POINT LOMA WHICH REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE MOST PLACES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO REGATHER AND FILL BACK IN FOR MOST
OF THE SAME LOCATIONS BY LATER THIS EVENING, WITH BASES REMAINING
AROUND THE SAME HEIGHTS BETWEEN 1000-1500 FT MSL, AND THEN MAY DROP
SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, WHILE LOWERING AND THICKENING.
SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN ON TRACK IN TERMS OF A COOLDOWN COMING
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO FURTHER TROUGHING, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE
WINDS TO PICK UP AND LEAD TO POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORIES FOR. THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT
RAIN AS WELL BY LATER IN THE EVENING ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE
MORNING OF SUNDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH DESERTS
AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOW DESERTS WITHIN GAP FLOW AREAS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE ALSO STILL APPEARS TO
BE A GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ALIKE WHICH SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE RETURNING AND BUILDING
BACK IN NEXT WEEK OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND LEADING TO QUITE A
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES, AND BACK ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SHALLOW
AND DISPERSE BY THIS TIME.
(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUBMITTED AT 309 AM):
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
INLAND AREAS ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
60S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE INLAND
EMPIRE WITH THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN NEAR 2000 TO 2500 FEET DEEP INTO
FRIDAY WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS WILL BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OF
COOLING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO
50 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS TO 65 TO 75 MPH IN THE NORTHERN
COACHELLA VALLEY BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TO 5000 TO 5500 FEET DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL INLAND AND ONTO THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR COASTAL AREAS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR PRECIPITATION IS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY FROM THE COAST TO THE MOUNTAINS.
MOST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR ONE-TENTH
INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL RANGING FROM AROUND 5 PERCENT NEAR THE
COAST TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT ON THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL COOL ANOTHER 5 DEGREES ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
FOR THE IN THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MOSTLY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY FROM THE
COAST TO THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING, BUT THE WINDS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THOSE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEK. WARMING WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY
FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS. ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 FOR
THE INLAND EMPIRE WITH 100 TO 104 FOR THE LOWER DESERTS.
A DEEP MARINE LAYER ON MONDAY WILL BECOME SHALLOWER WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS NOT EXTENDING INLAND MUCH PAST THE
WESTERN VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
151600Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 1500-2000 FT
MSL AT THE COAST AND IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS WILL SCATTER OUT THROUGH
17Z. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 1000-1500 FT MSL WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER 03Z, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE INLAND EMPIRE
BY 08Z FRI. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS REACHING KONT
BY 12Z FRI. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM THE VALLEYS 16-18Z
FRI, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOWER CLEARING ALONG THE COAST FRI AM.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY, EXCEPT FOR SOME
CUMULUS BASED AROUND 8000-10000 FEET MSL OVER THE MOUNTAINS 18-01Z.
MARINE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KT WITH WIND-DRIVEN
WAVES 7 TO 10 FEET FOR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WIND GUSTS 20 KT OR
LESS AND WIND-DRIVEN WAVES UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED FOR INNER COASTAL
WATERS. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT LOOK LIKELY IN
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BEACHES
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY HIGH SURF WILL IMPACT BEACHES LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SURF HEIGHT OF 4-7 FEET WITH SETS TO 8 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG
WEST-FACING BEACHES. INCREASED SURF WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK
OF STRONGER RIP CURRENTS.
SKYWARN
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
UPDATE...STEWEY
PUBLIC...MARTIN
AVIATION/MARINE...CO
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